No-deal seems like a done deal

As the claims, accusations and counter claims bounce back and forth across the Channel this week between David Frost and M Barnier in advance of what is likely to be the final round of talks, at least in advance of an intervention by the Prime Minister with VDL, take comfort in considering that it is all just window dressing and that no-deal is now pretty much inevitable. As John Keiger writes in the Speccie

After Britain’s chief negotiator’s broadside of a letter a few weeks ago on the need for the EU negotiators to get real, David Frost added a further nail to the negotiation’s coffin. On 27 May, he announced that a fishing deal with the EU would be ‘very difficult’. But in reality, each Brexit negotiator is merely going through the motions. The pointilliste dots of individual decisions made elsewhere clearly paint a no-deal Brexit picture.

Keiger lists the manifold factors that predicate against a deal. Liability for the EU €750bn bailout, markets so distorted by state-aid that the EU playing field now has the slope and contours of a Welsh village rugby pitch and the fact that business has already decided that a no-deal outcome is the one for which to plan. Not only is Nissan deserting Spain for the UK but the company may close their Renault plant in France also, and bring Micra production back to the UK. Macron, having just bunged Renault €5bn, is not happy.

Over the weekend we have had the opening salvos, summarised effectively by the Daily Express. First an ‘ultimatum’ from M Barnier that he will walk away from talks if the UK doesn’t back down on our red lines, then our chaps saying the EU was being unrealistic. This public bombast will continue. In the past we’ve allowed the French to do all the histrionic shouting, considering somehow that it was beneath us, but a new age under Boris has brought a touch of the Twickenham bleachers to our approach, and we now shout back. If Keiger is right, it’s actually about establishing in advance who is to blame. Not us.

Four weeks to go. The pressure of the global corporates and foreign interests on the UK press and media will continue. They’re not helped by the tsunami of QE that is artificially inflating asset prices like the skin of  a Peking duck; once the air has been let out, there is actually very little flesh on those sparse bones, but today it’s hard to argue that it’s the prospect of a no-deal is depressing share prices.

There remains a flash of amusement in the pro-globalist publicity offensive. In the Telegraph, which has bled readers as the Barclay Brothers have abandoned their pro-Brexit stance, it’s Jeremy Warner who is today the prophet of gloom and despondency. I’m eagerly anticipating AEP’s first ever bouncy and optimistic take on our economic prospects.