SAGE Should Take a Look at the Decline in Infections in U.S. States with Few Restrictions

A number of American states have rejected stay-at-home lockdowns and other strong restrictions throughout the crisis, while a larger group, though locking down for a period in the spring, have eschewed them during the autumn and winter surge.

Here is a list of the US states which have remained largely open during the autumn and winter (e.g. no stay-at-home orders) along with the dates that their positive cases went into decline this winter. (Source: Worldometers)

• Florida: Cases declining since January 12th
• Georgia: Cases declining since January 14th
• South Carolina: Cases declining since January 19th
• Texas: Cases declining since January 16th
• South Dakota: Cases declining since January 9th (main peak on November 17th)
• Utah: Cases declining since January 10th
• Nebraska: Cases declining since January 10th (main peak on November 20th)
• Iowa: Cases declining since January 11th (main peak on November 13th)
• Wyoming:  Cases declining since January 17th (main peak on November 23rd)
• Arkansas: Cases declining since January 11th
• North Dakota: Cases declining since November 18th

Note that all of these states saw infections starting to decline within ten days of each other in January. This is the same time that UK positive cases went into decline (January 10th).

When there is comparative data like this available for US states which declined to impose the restrictions being recommended in the UK and elsewhere, it is hard to understand how respectable scientists can continue to maintain that without lockdowns the NHS would be overwhelmed and deaths would skyrocket. Where is the requirement to test models against real-life evidence like this?

I have a suggestion. Why don’t SAGE scientists apply their models to some of these places and see if they can accurately predict what will happen, and what has already happened?

There are numerous places which have declined to follow the lockdowners’ prescriptions. Time for the Government scientists to take a closer look and show how their models can match the outcomes that these places have experienced.

Stop Press: For more on the situation in the USA, see this report from France 24. The autumn-winter surge is most definitely easing, and the decline has given rise to a number of explanations, including the suggestion, made by Professor Jay Bhattacharya, among others, that the country is heading towards immunity.

https://lockdownsceptics.org/