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AGW theory is based on two blatant 'diagonal comparisons' (Part 1)

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The theory is based on the fact that incoming solar radiation = outgoing infrared radiation, so a planet’s temperature should be such that the two match, and goes as follows:
1. Earth is 33 degrees warmer than it should be based in incoming solar radiation alone;
2. This is due to ‘greenhouse gases’ and ‘trapped radiation’;
3. Hence more greenhouse gases = higher temperatures.

Item 1. is the most outrageous Diagonal Comparison of all time. If this is not a valid comparison, then we need not concern ourselves with whether 2 and 3 are valid. (The real explanation for the apparent 33 degree difference is far simpler; and the most plausible reason for the recent slight increase in temperatures is Ozone Depletion, but these have been crowded out.)

The Hansen approach is to calculate the Effective (i.e. expected) Temperature of Earth by adjusting incoming solar radiation down for the average albedo of clouds, land and ocean to arrive at a low average expected temperature – and then comparing that with the higher temperature of land or ocean surface and ignoring the lower temperatures of clouds.

(The other Diagonal Comparison is that the official average surface temperature is overstated by about 33 degrees because it is weighted towards very low altitudes, which inevitably show a higher average temperatures than if Earth were covered with mountains. I’ll cover that in Part 2, and then I’m done with this nonsense.)

A proper scientific comparison compares like with like. So if you calculate the Effective Temperature based on the average albedo of clouds, land and oceans, you have to compare it with the overall average temperature of cloud tops, land and ocean surface… and you end up with a ‘Greenhouse Effect’ of +/- zero, zilch, nothing. Here are the numbers. (Cloud top altitude in pale blue as that is my best estimate and the variable most worthy of research or debate). It all matches up nicely:
References:
BBC – A brief history of the Earth’s CO2
Wikipedia – effective temperature
How high in the sky are clouds?Scientists detect world’s coldest cloud hovering over Pacific OceanWhat is Earth’s surface emissivity?


Source: http://markwadsworth.blogspot.com/2021/05/agw-theory-is-based-on-two-blatant.html


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