Well this is all going badly wrong, mostly through miscalculation.
Russia certainly has a case for the Crimea and also for Russian leaning provinces in the East.
But then Russia played outside of the rules before losing control of the Ukraine, in what was admittedly an EU/US coup – dressed up as a popular uprising.
The West did not keep to its promise of expanding NATO to the East, after the Soviet Empire dissolved itself.
However Russia has conducted itself in ways that are hard to tolerate or forgive. Polonium and nerve agents used within United Kingdom territory ( and those are the assassinations we publicly know about ).
Also the West has put its credibility on backing the Ukraine, and whilst its possible these were not the best commitments to make they were made. ( Remember the Ukraine disarmed itself of nuclear weapons, in exchange for a great power agreement to recognise its territory ).
The behaviour of Germany, and to some extent France, is a utter disgrace born of cowardice and naked self interest, The EU – having set up the conflict is nowhere to be seen.
Instead the UK is one of the few countries willing to back its promises, even if you might question if they should have been given.
What of NATO after this ? Does anyone believe Germany will back Poland or the Baltic states now ?
And the UK has to ask itself why we should hold the line and risk everything for nations that won’t defend themselves and countries like France that just vomit open hostility for narrow electoral advantage.
Will Putin invade ? It seems hard to believe he’ll pass up the opportunity.
If he does this is just the start of the unwinding of the world order – they won’t stop there. Iran, China, North Korea will all want to try their luck.
And the man who is US President for a few more years is focused on cultural Marxism and rigging elections.
These are going to be dangerous times.
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