Access to Uncertainty

It is often pointed out that a notable feature of the internet is that it makes worthwhile ideas more accessible. We could even go on from that to say the internet makes veracity more democratic which is why elites are not keen on it. Not that veracity was inaccessible before the internet, but now it is very much more accessible and much quicker and cheaper to access.

Yet is can be equally interesting to approach this from another angle and recall how the internet has also made uncertainty much more accessible. When we are told that an official policy or assertion is solidly backed by “the science”, it is often easy enough to check the veracity of the claim. Too often it turns out that “the science” is much more uncertain than the official line claims. Identify uncertainty and we often identify lying by omission.

In a world where lying by omission is not at all uncommon, access to uncertainty is often the first step in discrediting a lie. If the claim has unacknowledged uncertainties then there may be no need to take it further. It may not be necessary to promote an alternative version because unacknowledged uncertainty may be sufficient to identify the lie as a lie.

This enhanced access to uncertainty can counter fact-checker claims too. Facts themselves may not be uncertain, but the use to which they are put may weave uncertainties into the overall claim. Uncertainty may be enough to identify the fact-checking as irrelevant or another example of lying by omission.

The point to be made is that access to uncertainty is often a more powerful defence against misinformation than a search for concrete veracity. As ever, a good example is the orthodox climate change narrative where supposedly settled science is riddled with uncertainties and worse.

For example, numerous confident climate predictions have failed to occur as predicted. From the loss of Arctic sea ice in summer to rising sea levels to mass starvation to a whole series of tipping points, predictive failure is commonplace. This is where the power of accessible uncertainty lies, in the simple observation of failed predictions. Lies are exposed by uncertainties.