Bust Profile: Michael Turner

When looking at the running back position ahead of the draft, this year seems to be more a mess than usual. After the top 3 RBs (Foster, Rice, McCoy) there are questions for every player. Will Adrian Peterson, usually a solid top 2 pick, be the same after another major knee surgery? Ditto for Jamaal Charles. Similar injury questions exist for Matt Forte, Fred Jackson,  Darren McFadden, DeMarco Murray and more. How will Trent Richardson’s and Ryan Matthews’ preseason injuries affect their early season play? Was Chris Johnson’s struggles last year a product of his holdout, or a sign of decline? Will Maurice Jones-Drew’s holdout end with the same disappointment as CJ2K’s?

So many questions, so few answers as you look at the RB position. That brings us to Michael Turner of the Atlanta Falcons. So far, in standard leagues Turner seems to be falling in the 13-16 range as far a RB rankings. In Point Per Reception leagues he usually slides a few slots lower, coming in the 16-20 range. The bottom line is that Turner has never been much of a receiving threat out of the backfield. Last season Turner finished in the 6-8 range for RBs depending on the scoring setting, so why does it seem like the industry is a bit down on him coming into the season? Let’s take a look.

First, the Falcons have undergone a bit of a change in offensive philosophy. Reports are that the Falcons are set to take the “reigns” off of the offense and will shift to a focus on the passing game with Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez. Naturally that would lead to less rushing touches for Micheal Turner. Actually if you take a closer look, Turner’s rushing stats have been on the decline each year he’s been in Atlanta.

If you don’t pay too much attention to the 2009 season where Turner dealt with some injuries and missed some time his carries, yards and touchdown numbers have been on the decline. This was when the offense was focused on the run and went through Turner. Furthermore, if you look at the end of Turner’s 2011 season and take out his week 17 game against Tampa Bay (17,172,2) he went for a 99, 321, 2 line. By the way, most leagues don’t use the week 17 matchups, so owners weren’t even able to enjoy that game in most formats. Regardless, taking away the final game, he managed only a 3.2 ypc average to go along with 2 touchdowns.

Another reason for pessimism when it comes to Turner this season would be his backup, Jacquizz Rodgers. Many of us might not know how to pronounce his name now, but you might want to learn. Rodgers has drawn rave reviews from the coaching staff as well as his teammates this preseason. The coaches have publicly stated that they want to get the ball to Rodgers more this season, at the expense of Turner. Rodgers is a good receiver out of the backfield and fits the up-tempo style of offense the Falcons will employ this season better than Turner.

Add all of this together, and I more than likely to stay away from Turner in drafts this season. That’s not to say I wouldn’t take him at all, I would. Especially if there was a run on RBs in the 1st and 2nd rounds, you might not have a choice. If you can get Turner in the 3rd to 4th round or later, then he becomes too much of a value to pass up. I see production closer to his week 11-16 stretch than his season totals from last year. His only bonus is that he should retain his goal-line duties and be a decent source of TDs. I would look for somewhere around 1,150 or less yards and 7-9 TDs this season from Turner.