The Backdoor Cover: Week 3 NFL Picks

Some early season house-cleaning on the agenda today. This may shock you, but I write this early in the week. Now that you’ve gotten over that revelation, you are wondering what this means for you. Well by the time Sunday rolls around the lines have probably changed.

For example, this past week when I actually got around to taking games (roughly 6 minutes before kickoffs) I got Philadelphia -3 (had them -1 in column) and NY Giants -7 (had them -9 in column) as bets. I pushed on NY and lost Philadelphia. I did the opposite in the column but it all worked out.

Season record (10-5-1)

Last week (4-3-1)

For the sake of record-keeping, I will use the lines I publish always. I love the Thursday night football game but it certainly compresses the week for gambling and fantasy.

So…show of hands, who is still in their survival leagues? Hint: My hands are down. Not only did I lose my bet on the Patriots last week, they kicked me out of my survival league. I don’t mind this one bit. If you don’t cover as a two-touchdown favorite then you should lose straight up. Interesting that all but two NFL home teams won the game last week and one of the ones who didn’t was the Patriots.

This week means having to decide if teams are as good or bad as they appear to be or if they have had bad luck/circumstances. I have capped the week and determined some teams are undervalued. Another bad week and the lines will catch up to us though. Remember, there is nothing bad enough that putting on the Garden State soundtrack can’t help you get through. Never underestimate the genius that is Zach Braff.

Speaking of genius, if you are looking for a serious college football pick guy who puts himself on video to give you the information in a logical, thought-out manner free of emotion then I highly recommend my pal Vinnie Verno on the website www.outkickthecoverage.com. Let’s get to the games!

NFL

CAROLINA -2 vs. Giants – I was on Panthers yesterday when they were +1 and see no reason to jump ship because of the line move. Hakeem Nicks being declared inactive certainly helps the Panthers. I like this game because the Giants are vulnerable against the run and the short week favors the home team. Even though I’ve picked Carolina two weeks in a row no way makes me think Cam Newton didn’t knowingly take money to play college football at Auburn.

CHICAGO -7 vs. Rams – Have you guys seen the smoking Jay Cutler tumblr? Go look it up, I’ll wait. I told you right, that was hilarious. Is there a more unlikeable guy in all of sports? Not only is he being avoided, no one seems to be on the Bears. You know what Chicago has going for it? A great defense. Combine that with a running game and a QB that plays well every other game or so and you have a beating.

KANSAS CITY +9 vs. Saints – Here is the opposite of the Bears game. I don’t like the Saints because their defense has been so poor I don’t trust them to hold a lead. Don’t get me wrong, KC has looked pretty terrible so far. They are one of the teams I was referencing about deciding if they were going to play football this season or just sit it out. This bet is based upon thinking the Chiefs can run the ball. If they can’t, then I was wrong and we all lose. Sidenote: Is there a more odd fantasy player than Darren Sproles? He’s a WR at RB yet he’s more valuable than most RB2s.

PHILADELPHIA -3.5 vs. Cardinals – This marks the 3^rd game I’ve bet on the Eagles. I’ve watched both their games and they’ve yet to put it together. However, it’s coming. There is no better place than against a 2-0 Arizona team that some people wondered if they would win 2 games all year. I don’t like betting against a home dog but I think we are getting two teams with a wide gap in talent. No, I can’t explain the Patriots win but I’m hoping to take advantage of the line value from it at least.

MINNESOTA +6.5 vs. 49ers – I know a guy who lives in the back of a butcher shop in New Jersey. A few times a year he gives me hot tips. This is the first this year. I can’t give you the specifics (I don’t want to have an “accident”) but teams that covered and won the first two weeks, both as an underdog and favorite, playing as a 6 point or better favorite that are playing a team that won 5 or less games last season are 1-12 all-time ATS. I know that sentence was confusing but reread it a few times. Bottom line is take the Vikings.

DETROIT -3.5 vs. Titans – Going against a home underdog again but the Titans are a team that I’m thinking is just that bad. When your weakness is the offensive line, I’m not betting against a team like Detroit coming to town. I traded CJ2K in a keeper league early last year and have been laughing ever since. That guy is toast. Detroit needs to get this win and Stafford finally gets on track.

BRONCOS +1.5 vs. Texans – Took Denver first week, not last week but am back in #BroncoCountry against Houston. I know the Texans have looked great, but this week they step up in competition going to the Mile High city. They’ve played Jax and Miami. I think this will be a close game but think the Broncos will pull it out from taking Andre Johnson out the game with Champ and loading up against the run.

CLEVELAND +3 vs. Bills – If you can’t trust Brandon Weeden to get you a win, then you might as well stop gambling. I don’t think anyone has ever thought that. Ever. I’ll give the Browns credit the first two games, they’ve played hard. I think that pays off this week with a home win. The Bills haven’t got an identity yet and think they are getting too much credit from blowing out the Chiefs last week. A stingy defense plus Trent Richardson should do the trick. What can I say, I’ve always been a big friend to everyone in Ohio.

Good luck!