The Backdoor Cover: Week 5 NFL Picks

So what have we learned so far this season?

This is the time of year that bad teams are established (Jets, Chiefs, Jags) and whoever they are playing is usually the biggest favorites of the week. Lost three games last week, two of which were bet on these identified bad teams. I’m not going to stop with them altogether, but it’s time to pick and choose their spots.

I had a push last week with PHI but if you took the game on Saturday or Sunday like I did, you got the win since the spread had moved down to -1.5 or even -1.

Quick fantasy football note: Mr. Hazean himself and I have always been big supporters of taking as many running backs in drafts as possible. Even if you could draft a slightly better QB/WR than RB, I usually take the RB. The past few years it’s become “expert cool” to dismiss RB and do different strategies. My argument is simple: It’s that when you are looking at only the draft for building your team, then I might see things differently. However look at the top waiver picks the past few weeks. Each week a start-able WR or QB or TE has emerged. From Hartline to Pita, by stocking up on running backs and gaining depth/future starters you can much more easily supplement the rest of your team in-season. The running back waiver players so far haven’t been anything exciting other than one game for Andre Brown.

Feel like the lines are tightening up this week. Last week, two of the biggest public plays with San Francisco and New England. This week it sets up similarly with Baltimore, Green Bay, Chicago and Atlanta going on the road to play mediocre teams. Something will give at some point, it happens every year. We’ve had 3 out of 4 winning weekends to start out the season, so we need to dance with the one that brought us. Also, how long are replacement ref jokes going to be funny? I feel like it’s over already but will still see them for a couple more weeks.

Season record (17-13-2)

Last week (4-3-1)

NFL

ST. LOUIS +2 vs. Cardinals – It’s like the NFL decided to make a great thing happen (NFL FOOTBALL ON THURSDAY NIGHTS) and then give us games with either the Browns or the Rams in them. No different than someone inviting you over for burgers and they turn out to be sweet potato burgers. Kinda scared to put my 2-0 STL betting streak on the line but the Cardinals favored on the road just makes me need Tylenol. Rams 17-16. Don’t forget Parks & Rec tonight! I want viewers so it isn’t cancelled.

NEW ORLEANS -3.5 vs. Chargers – The Saints will win at some point this season. At least I think so. In what should be an entertaining game (will the legend of Jackie Battle grow? will Lance Moore keep dropping passes? will Saints’ fans livers finally explode?) I like New Orleans to finally get it done. In case you are wondering, Cochon is my favorite New Orleans restaurant. You are welcome.

WASHINGTON +3 vs. Falcons – More of a bet against the Falcons than on the Redskins. If I’m looking for a spot that they could finally lose a game I’ll choose it to be on the road versus a team that runs the ball very well. The worry here is the WAS secondary is terrible. Just absolutely terrible. So in the back of my head, I know that monster game for Julio Jones is coming.

JACKSONVILLE +6 vs. Bears – Why do I keep betting the Jaguars? I’m 0-2 on the season when backing them even if they are AT HOME. Here is some shaky at best logic: Bears just played on road Monday night, got big victory but mostly aided by non-stop Dallas turnovers. Jacksonville has the running game/defense to keep it kinda close. After writing it out, those are pretty terrible reasons. Still taking the Jaguars though. I mean what are the odds good Cutler shows up two weeks in a row?

MIAMI +3 vs. Bengals – The Dolphins are quietly a solid team. We backed them last week against the almighty Cardinals and they should have won the game. The Bengals are getting a ton of money this week and I don’t like it. I’m not a big fan of two road games in a row for Miami but I think they are more than capable of pulling the upset. I need Reggie Bush to be behind his knee problems though.

MINNESOTA -5.5 vs. Titans – I’m going with the fact that I think the Titans are terrible and the Vikings are underrated. You have to admire what’s going in MN. Running game……check. My favorite non-DEN TE…..check. Plucky scrambling QB……check. Playing against Matt Hasselbeck……check. Winning by a touchdown……check. Me regretting drafting Kenny Britt…..check.

SEATTLE +3 vs. Panthers – Wait, so Seattle’s not good anymore or something? Underdogs to the Panthers. Don’t the line makers listen to ESPN radio? Cam Newton doesn’t lose the right way. He puts a towel over his head even. If the guy formerly known as Michael Turner can have a big day against the Panthers, what’s Lynch going to do. This is also a perfect game for Russell Wilson to be slightly better than average.

INDIANAPOLIS +7 vs. Packers – This game has all the makings of a blow-out. The only thing that could keep the Colts close is the Green Bay secondary. Not sure if the Colts can exploit it like Drew Brees did last week but hey, someone’s got to bet on the team to see if they can right? When asking around the office, I didn’t get one person to tell me Colts could win this game. Should be a good experiment.

BALTIMORE -6 vs. Chiefs – Now this is the opposite of the Colts game. I watched some of the Chiefs last week and Matt Cassell is terrible. I’m sure he’ll throw for 8 touchdowns this week because I said that, but man he was just overall bad. I wish the Ravens had a pass rush, they are vulnerable without it. The Ravens haven’t played since last Thursday. I just have to think this is a double-digit victory.

HOUSTON-9 vs. Jets – I tried everything to talk myself out of this game. It has TRAP written all over it. I hammered against the Jets last week and it was a bloodbath. Now here come the Texans to do it all over again. I mean there is even legitimate Tebow talk these days. By the time Monday rolls around, people who never bet before are going to be throwing down some coin against the gang green. It is what it is though and the Texans are 20 points better. You wait and see though, something screwy will happen in the NFL parity world we live in and Sanchez will light it up. Actually, he probably won’t and the Jets will just fire their GM soon.

Good luck!