The Backdoor Cover: Week 6 NFL Picks

Not even a business trip taking me halfway across the country is going to stop me from picking winners again this week. While I’m always happy with a plus week, I can’t help but feel like I got shorted on a few games.

If RGIII doesn’t get hurt, I think the Redskins cover probably or at worst, push. Monday night Houston was a play against everything I believe in and the result was the betting universe punishing us all for only taking one side. Watching that game, that was the most one-sided 6 point win in the NFL this year.

Speaking of traveling, I have to admit that being on the road solo has some advantages. What I’ve taken advantage of this week: Using as many towels in the hotel as I want each day. Once one gets slightly damp, I toss it and un-wrap another one. In the car, when songs such as Thompson Twin’s “Hold Me Now” comes on the radio, I can sing along at high volumes. Also, in the morning I abuse the waffle machine in the continental breakfast. It’s by far the most underused item on the aisle. I shudder to think how long the pieces of bread have been in the display.

On to this week, we see an influx of team’s that were just on bye. I find myself backing these squads more often than not and history is on my side. Also a plus, the Jaguars are off this week so I can’t lose on them like usual.

Just as important as winning money is the return of three shows before next week’s picks. THE WALKING DEAD, THE LEAGUE and HAPPY ENDINGS. They all three have my full endorsement.

Unlike the new network show CHICAGO FIRE. I can’t stand the promos. I have utmost respect for firefighters and have some as good friends but I got news for you all, they aren’t young and all good-looking. It’s no wonder that they get shutout year after year at the awards shows. So, so lazy.

On to the picks!

Season record (23-17-2)

Last week (6-4)

NFL

PITTSBURGH -6 vs. Titans – I can’t help but feel I’m repeating MNF Houston all over again here. The Titans are a bottom-five NFL team that can’t stop anyone on defense, have a QB that probably DVRs Matlock (old joke) and they have the most underproductive RB in the league. They shouldn’t be within two scores of a PIT team that just got back a surprisingly productive Mendenhall. But you just wait and see, the laws of betting will come into play and some Music City Miracle III will happen on the last play of the game causing the Titans to lose by 5.

OAKLAND +9 vs. Falcons – One of these games, I’m going to be right betting against Atlanta. Here’s my reasoning for this week’s loss: Oakland is coming off of a bye where I think they’ll make a point to get RunDMC going. Atlanta isn’t unbeatable, they almost (should have) lost last week. Plus nine points is plenty for the Raiders to keep the back door open. Carson Palmer won’t let us down.

INDIANAPOLIS +3.5 vs. Jets – Pressing my luck (get it?) hoping that lightning strikes twice. It makes me feel better looking at it as a bet against the Jets covering two games in a row. Did you know Vick Ballard is getting the start this week? As a gigantic Mississippi State fan I can assure you there was no way I’m picking against them. I like to think that every Sunday Rex Ryan and fantasy owners have the same thought – “I can’t believe I have to start Shonn Greene today.”

TAMPA BAY -4 vs. Chiefs – Yes the Bucs are coming off of a bye. However, the most important thing to remember here is that Brady Quinn is getting the start for the Chiefs. Don’t get caught up in that fact though. The Chiefs can run the ball to a win here. I have a good feeling that the Bucs will put their offense together as they were getting better each week before the bye. This bet will hinge on if the Bucs defense can stop Charles. Don’t forget, Quinn couldn’t beat out Tim Tebow.

DALLAS +3.5 vs. Ravens – I don’t have the exact math, but I’m guessing it has been roughly 87 games since the Ravens covered as a favorite. They never live up to expectations but they always win. I’ll take the Cowboys coming off the bye and Romo having to live with all the turnovers from his last game. Full disclosure: part of this bet is me being upset with how un-focused Baltimore played last week. Please show up Dez Bryant, please.

SEATTLE +3.5 vs. Patriots – Oh no, I’m betting against the almighty Patriots. They are looking in Super Bowl form! Wes Welker is unstoppable! The mighty New England ground game is the stuff of legend. So far this week no one is backing the Seahawks. If there is one team that bows up at home, it’s Seattle. I’ll take my chances with their run defense combined with Marshawn Lynch to get his usual yards. Repeat after me: I am not scared of the Patriots.

NEW YORK GIANTS +6.5 vs. Niners – I understand San Francisco has destroyed teams the past two weeks. However, those teams were the Jets and Bills. There is no better underdog than the Giants the past couple of years. I’ll take a chance on New York getting almost a touchdown. For the past few days, SF has been sitting on top of every expert’s power rankings. Let’s make them earn it.

DENVER +1.5 vs. Chargers – I realize Denver is 2-3. However the fan in me can point to a few turnovers in each of those losses that were the reason. This leads to Denver getting down a few scores and having to play catch-up. I don’t think the Chargers are capable of jumping out to a big lead. Also, I’m not speaking to Norv Turner until he realizes that Ryan Matthews is one of the best running backs in the league. Someone can notify him I’m picking against him this week, because I’m not. Also Antonio Gates is absolutely killing me. He’s my biggest swing-and-miss from fantasy preseason predictions.

Good luck!