The Backdoor Cover: Week 7 NFL Picks

I checked my numbers. Looked through the stats, schedules etc. Repeated. Still, it came out the same. Then I was hit by a moment of clarity that told me to stop over-thinking the situation.

Even casual NFL line observers have noticed what is going on the in the NFL so far this season. It only became abundantly apparent after last week’s blaring record. Underdogs went 12-2 ATS last week. The stat was even flashed on the bottom line of ESPN news and repeated on sports talk radio. Guy came up to me and said the usual “If I had bet $100 on every underdog this season I would be up a lot of money.” For the year overall, underdogs are way up on favorites.

This happens every year. A couple of weeks of high numbers of either favorites or underdogs covering and everyone begins adjusting. Last year it was favorites early in the year. So far this year, the opposite happened. As I’ve explained in previous BDC’s, I am a predominant underdog player. Probably part of the reason I’m hitting at a nice clip this season actually.

Which leads me back to the opening sentiment. After making my picks this year I realized that almost all of them are favorites. However, I don’t plan on changing my approach just to even it out. If anything, favorites should start to cover more frequently from here on out.

The other thing working in favorites favor this week is the quality of the home underdog is severely lacking. I love a good home underdog but hated the situation, the opponent, line value and the trends that surround these teams.

So I’m leading my favorites into battle Braveheart style. I appreciate the positive response and support I’ve gotten thus far and I understand if you want to act like one of the clans that bailed right before the big battle with the English. You are probably also thinking I’ve got to lose at some point, that I can’t possibly have a winning record week after week after week like I’ve been doing.

But what if I don’t………….

On to the picks!

Season record (29-19-2)

Last week (6-2)

NFL

SAN FRANCISCO -7 vs. Seahawks – Last week bought us line value on this game. I won both of their games (against SF/on SEA) and now I’m doing the opposite. In the short week, I’ll take the shutdown defense. To put it bluntly, I don’t expect hardly any points out of Seattle. There is no way they are letting a team take it to them two weeks in a row. The Seahawks will be flying after their Patriot win, but just like we did after their Green Bay win we’ll cash in on the next game.

BUFFALO -3 vs. Titans – What to say here other than I hate the Titans on the road even more than I hate the Titans at home. Let’s see: Don’t think they can win two in a row, don’t think Chris Johnson will rush well again, don’t think they get no turnovers from their quarterback play and on and on and on. At some point the Bills are going to want results from their touted defensive line.

INDIANAPOLIS -2.5 vs. Browns – I’ll be honest, this was the late addition to this list. I just can’t believe the Browns upset love I’ve been getting for two days. The Browns. On. The Road. With possibly a banged up T-Rich? My head hurts. They just fired their GM and it is presumed the coach isn’t far behind. I fail to see the intense motivation these players have. I do, however, see the motivation for Andrew Luck in the dome.

NEW ENGLAND -10 vs. Jets – Another situation where last week bought us enough line value to be worth our while. Despite what Rex Ryan claims, this one will be over at halftime. Take New England. Lay the points. The only bigger disaster than the Jet’s offense is Tyler Perry in an action movie. Okay, maybe they are equal.

GREEN BAY -5 vs. Rams – Here is a line that makes me want to paint my face. Normally I would be all over a team like the Rams here. In fact, I’ve backed them a lot already this season with great results. Not this time. You see Green Bay last week? What’s impressive is they were one TD away from equaling STL total offensive TD output for the year. They just don’t have the firepower against a GB team that has lost all margin for error. I’m not taking the underdog bait.

NEW YORK GIANTS -5.5 vs. Redskins – Did you guys see that RGIII run last week? People are still talking about it. Man, is there ANYTHING he can’t do? Turns out there is something…….play in the defensive secondary. With Nicks likely back (under the radar) the Giants will be running 7×7 drills. Despite his skills, the NY defense has enough athletes to keep in slightly under control for a two-score win.

PITTSBURGH -1 vs. Bengals – see first sentence of Bay, Green. I am not a Bengal believer. However, this isn’t your older brother’s Steelers defense. This one should be a close game but I have to think Pittsburgh needs this win worse. Not that I cap based upon need of wins because that’s terrible, but it does add to the fact that the Steelers let one get away last week. However, don’t let this pick detract from the fact that I couldn’t be happier I have A.J. Green in my keeper league.

ARIZONA +6 vs. Vikings – What a roller coaster for the Cardinals so far in line value. Start off the season undervalued, shock the world three straight weeks. Then become a favorite a few weeks, never cover (me = cha-ching) and now they are a nice underdog once again. I’ve done well with the Vikings this year too but this number is out of their range. I see this is a close one that will be decided by 4 or less.

JACKSONVILLE +5 vs. Raiders – I’ve made mention in several of these write-ups as teams I’ve bet on and won or against and won. I like to think I’m getting a good groove for the lines of those team and how they’ll react. It ends here. I’ve been terrible with the Jags this year. I have bet on them several times and lost. Not even close. What drags me back to their smelly carcass is a trend that is pretty strong with this line. Raiders should have won last week too but at least they got the cover for us. Man I hate the Jaguars.

CHICAGO -6 vs. Lions – Feeling cocky taking the Monday night game two weeks in a row. Luckily the Lions wandered back into the Philly game (eventually winning) despite being inept for the majority of it. Fresh off a bye, the Bears aren’t going to playing that kind of game. I’ll take the line value of less than a touchdown. Also, what genius schedules a debate that night? I don’t understand that. At least I’ll be winning something that night despite losing by looking at social media commentary during the debate.

Good luck!