Week 11 Start Em’ & Sit Em’

Good morning or afternoon readers. Welcome to Week 11 of the 2012 season. Playoff races are clearing up around leagues and it’s crunch time. Every win counts. If you’re in such a race, you are probably bouncing back and forth between several players for slots in your lineup. We’re here to help you with some thought on some of those players. As you read many opinions and facts this week and beyond, remember to go with your gut. We are just analysts and predictors, not experts. That being said, this is the final week of byes with Tennessee, Minnesota, New York (Giants) and Seattle off. That means it’s a slim week for runners as three top-10 options are sitting. Add that to already injured stars and things could look ugly for some owners. Also, many leagues probably have their trade deadlines this week or next. For a little help, I will point you towards an article from ESPN’s AJ Mass on how to evaluate Multi-player deals. It is solid advice and how I evaluate trades. Here’s the link, enjoy!

START EM

Andrew Luck: Luck has been a top-10 QB this season in most formats, but for some reason his projects for this week seem modest to me. He is playing a Patriots defense that has been very generous though the air. The Patriots also should be able to put up a good amount of points against the Colts defense, allowing Luck to continue chucking the ball all game. Luck even has been a threat to score rushing TDs this year (5 TDs makes him 2nd in the NFL for RGIII’s 6). Looks like a solid play to me.

Cam Newton: Newton has been a bit of a disappointment this year after a crazy rookie season. He also has worried me a bit as far as his mental maturity. Regardless, he has the talent and the physical tools to be great. Against a Tampa Bay team that has given up a lot of points the last 4 weeks Newton should be a solid play. While he has a tendency to turn the ball over, his rushing ability should counteract that negative. He played well against Tampa earlier in the season, and I expect him to do so again this week.

Marcel Reece: The cat was finally let out of the bag yesterday that the Raiders had expected to be without Darren McFadden for 2-4 weeks when he got injured. That means they are admitting Reece will be leading the attack once again this week. Reece dominated touches over Taiwan Jones last week and should again this week. He expectantly was very useful in the passing game last week, but I thought he also ran the ball well. He wasn’t a world beater, but ran with power and was quick to hit the hole. Going up against New Orleans who can be run and thrown on, I think Reece stays relevant for the whole game and should go over 100 combined yards.

Felix Jones: I feel a bit dirty placing Felix in the starts suggestions. He seems to be one of my fantasy “Whack-a-Moles” (someone I seem to miss on whether I like them or hate them). I’m hearing that the Cowboys are expecting to be without Murray for possibly two more games. That gives him another start this week against a Browns team that can be run on. Jones has also been involved in the passing game giving him even more appeal. If you believe in the “Whack-a-Mole” theory, then you might want to sit him because I would feel safe playing him.

Daniel Thomas: I don’t think Reggie Bush will completely cede his primary back role to Thomas just yet, and I also like him this week against Buffalo. Both Bush and Thomas should get plenty of touches against a run defense that has given up over 200 yards rushing in 3 games and 2 or more rushing TDs in 4 games this year. My reason for listing Thomas over Bush is the hunch that if they get inside the 10 Thomas will be the one getting those TDs.

Stevie Johnson: Miami can be thrown on. As a side note, I am also high on Fitzpatrick this week. Johnson is the main target in the passing game, and Spiller shouldn’t be the only one to benefit from Fred Jackson’s absence. Spiller won’t get 30 touches I don’t think, so that means the Bills will probably be throwing it more. I wouldn’t be surprised to see between 80-100 yards with a TD from Johnson in this game.

Randall Cobb: Like I said two weeks ago, I think Jordy Nelson’s return only will help Cobb. Without Nelson, teams will key in on Cobb as the top target in that offense. Nelson should help to deflect some of the attention.

Miles Austin: Unfortunately the Browns’ Joe Haden can’t cover two people at once, and the Browns haven’t figured out how to clone him yet. That means Austin should see a lot of Sheldon Brown and Buster Skrine this week. While Brown is not horrible, Austin should find lots of room to get open this week while Dez Bryant is drawing Haden’s attention.

Antonio Gates: The way Gates’ season has gone, he should welcome the team against which he posted a 6-81-2 line earlier in the season. Rivers will be looking to is safety valve often against the Denver pass rush. Gates has also picked up him play as of late which is just another encouraging point for this week’s game.

Brent Celek: I have been down on Celek all season. He has appeared in this column several times, all of them I think as a sit. I’m feeling good about him this week against the Redskins though with a Rookie QB at the helm. There is some risk here though that Celek could be kept in for pass protection more as well. My hunch though is that he has his 2 startable game this week.

Cincinnati D/ST: The Chiefs are pretty bad. Seriously, Charles is the only one I worry about in this matchup and he has been very inconsistent.Or maybe I should say that his coaches have been inconsistent in how they have used him. Regardless, the owners can confidently stream the Bengals D this week.

SIT EM

Joe Flacco: If you started Flacco last week, give yourself a pat on the back. Now it’s time for him to return to your bench. While he had some success against the Steelers last year, I think that the Pittsburgh defense will rally around Roethlisberger’s injury. They are already the 3rd toughest defense against opposing QBs, and they always get up for this matchup in a rivalry that carried over from it’s days in Cleveland.

ANY of the Potential Injury QB Fillers: This list includes Nick Foles, Byron Leftwich, Jason Campbell, or Colin Kaepernick. Don’t get suckered in. Foles has the most potential of this group, but I’m just not sure I trust him yet despite his juicy matchup. Leftwich hasn’t started a game since 2009 and just doesn’t do much very well. Heck, as slow as he is I could see him getting knocked out of this game. Campbell and Kaepernick would be playing each other, and neither has a good matchup if that’s the case. I will say though that Kaepernick’s running ability does make him 2nd of these 4 for me if you are absolutely desperate.

Mikel Leshoure: Leshoure has actually only had 2 performances of over 10 standard points this season. They were big ones though (19 in week 3 and 25 in week 9) which might lead owners to believe Leshoure has been better than he actually has been. Green Bay defends the run pretty well, and Joique Bell still looms to steal touches. Basically in starting Leshoure you are gambling on a TD. I just don’t feel confident in that this week.

Vick Ballard/Donald Brown: I think this situation can clear up at some point in the future this season, but I think that right now Ballard has produced too much to give up all of the touches and Brown is healthy enough to warrant 10+ touches per game. New England is middle of the road as far as defending the run, which just doesn’t give either of them enough to work with to trust them this week.

Michael Turner: In a competitive league I am in, Turner was dropped for the third time this season yesterday. Each time I have taken a long look at him because of the name, but each time I have passed (incidentally this week I picked up Daniel Thomas instead). While he may have another good game or two for the remainder of the season, his 1 point showing against a putrid New Orleans defense last week shows that you might not be able to tell when that good game might come.

Vincent Jackson: Jackson has struggled against good secondaries this year, while feasting on weak ones. This week he gets the 8th-ranked Carolina secondary that he managed just 47 yards against in week 1. I would not feel comfortable if I had to roll with Jackson this week.

Michael Crabtree: Chicago’s defense just keep beating offenses into submission. I don’t think it matters who is playing QB for the 49ers on Monday night, they won’t be able to throw for much in this one. Crabtree will be blanketed all night long by Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings.

Dwayne Bowe: Cincinnati has a good group of cornerbacks and Bowe is the only dangerous receiving threat the Chiefs have. I just don’t trust his QBs enough. You probably have to start him based on talent, but don’t be surprised if come Tuesday you’re left wanting.

Vernon Davis: Davis is somehow a top-15 TE for the season. He hasn’t had a 10+ point performance since week 5 though, and I think I’ve mentioned how nasty the Bears defense is.

Joel Dreessen: Dreessen has been valuable this season mainly as Peyton Manning’s red zone TE target of choice. That’s just too much to gamble on for me as the weeks get more and more crucial down the stretch.

Packers D/ST: The Lions at home should be able to move the ball and score on this defense. I’d shy away for this week.

Okay everyone, thanks for reading! As a heads up, next week’s articles might be coming in early due to the Thanksgiving Holiday. Good luck this week though!

Last Week’s Results: Season Totals in Parentheses

Starts: 3-8, .272 (46-64, .418)

Matthew Stafford: 30pts = W, Ryan Fitzpatrick: 22pts = W, Vick Ballard: 5pts = L, Rashad Jennings: 2pts = L, Pierre Thomas: 1pt = L, Eric Decker: 1pt = L, Devone Bess: 5pts = L, Brandon Lloyd: 4pts = L, Greg Olsen: 22pts = W, Jermaine Gresham: 7pts = L, Dolphins D/ST: 0pts = L

Sits: 3-8, .272 (69-41, .627)

Tony Romo: 20pts = L, Michael Vick: 8pts = W, Jamaal Charles: 16pts = L, Chris Johnson: 18 pts = L, Felix Jones: 15pts = L, Torrey Smith: 18pts = L, Dwayne Bowe: 5pts = W, Sidney Rice: 17pts = L, Kyle Rudolph: 12pts = L, Scott Chandler: 12pts = L, Giants D/ST: 3pts = W

A dismal week 10 record of 6-16 brings my season record to 115-105 (.522). Time for a rebound week!