The Backdoor Cover: Week 14 NFL Picks

I was bored and hung-over on a train last Sunday morning. When this happens, I tend to put in more bets than I normally would. It just so happens I had the bright idea to put in a 6 game/6 point tease parlay. This was my first bet of the season with more than two games in a teaser. Paid 7:1.

So you can imagine my excitement with 5 of the games already won with only needing DETROIT to win the game left. They had a lead all game so I’ll be honest I didn’t pay it much attention early on but even after IND scored closing the 12 point gap to 5 with a little over two minutes to go I still felt confident. You know what happened – I stared at my phone as Detroit gave up the touchdown on fourth down with no time left. I thought, it can’t get any worse.

Last week I complained about the Chargers (let’s be honest, I complain about the Chargers & #FireNorv every week) after they blew the lead to lose the cover to BAL. I took them again last week (like an idiot) watched them blow the lead gain (like an idiot) and lost the bet (like an idiot). The toughest bets to lose are ones you know you had the right side on but still lost. Also, the JETS had ample opportunity to score a covering touchdown at the end but chose not to and that is why they are losers.

The opposite of that feeling came in the SNF game. I had the Cowboys at -10 but didn’t pay them much attention as they were losing or it was close all game and The Walking Dead midseason finale was on (I still miss you T-Dogg). Towards the end of the game, the Cowboys got a defensive touchdown to take an 11 point lead. It was a cover miracle that you only dream about most games. What happened later was Dallas punted and with time in the game almost elapsed, PHI returned the punt for a TD and lost the cover. I would rank it #2 worst beat behind the SEA/GB bad TD call game.

But it felt different not having the cover all game and knowing I only had the cover because of a fluke defensive touchdown. I like to think those of us who have been doing this forever know the two types of feelings losing bad beats.

Wow, so whiny I am about losing games lately. It is Christmas season so I’m blaming the fact that I have to purchase presents for people on the overall holiday season being a downer. I love my family/friends but when you have two families to purchase for, even at $20 or less a present it becomes expensive if you have 30 family members/kids. The worst part is that you can’t get anything decent for $20. Seriously, there is nothing you can buy someone as a surprise that they would like for that kind of money. Try it, you get cell-phone covers, frames etc. Guessing with that much cash is a guarantee to get a present shoved on a shelf in a closet.

On to the picks!

Season record (51-41-3)

Last week (4-4)

NFL

DENVER -10.5 vs. Raiders – I mentioned last week that I have been CRUSHLAYING Denver games the past month, either against or for them. Since I’m contractually obligated to pick the Thursday night game, I’ll side with the team that isn’t evil. I can’t back Oakland here even with a large home dog number since their defense is just walking through the motions. Unlike Kansas City, the Broncos don’t have much trouble winning easily in Raider’s stadium.

BALTIMORE +2.5 vs. Redskins – The Ravens are due for a nice win and this sets up nicely for them. The world is in love with RGIII and the Ravens will quietly get back some defensive help. Flacco isn’t great by any stretch of the word, but he should be able to thrive against a Redskin secondary you can beat over the top.

DETROIT +6.5 vs. Packers – I don’t trust the Packer defense at this number. Detroit has a glimmer of hope so I expect their best effort. Don’t look now, but the Lions have a formidable running attack to go with their every now and then good passing attack. It’s a combination I’ll take a chance on for the SNF game.

BUFFALO -3 vs. Rams – No one has been a Ram backer more than me this year, including last week’s epic win of SF. Now is the time to jump ship to the other side. Buffalo has sneakily been playing much better better front 7 defense the past three weeks. You know if you don’t bet on it then you won’t care about this game. Think of the people who work hard to bring you Buffalo football. They deserve your attention.

TAMPA BAY -7.5 vs. Eagles – This feels like it should be a big win for Tampa Bay. Foles as QB looks pretty bad still to me and I’ll take the Bucs to run at will. If I need a tiebreaker, I always think about where I would rather live. Tampa Bay wins pretty easily. They are close to manatees, which is a top-5 ever animal.

TENNESSEE +5.5 vs. Colts – This is my “people think I’m weapons-grade crazy pick” of the week. I like the line number, I like the fact that the Colts made a big comeback last week and I like the fact that the Colts have become a public team. I’m going to ride Jared Cook to a cover.

KANSAS CITY +6.5 vs. Browns – The Chiefs have every reason in the world to come out flat this week after last week’s emotional win. This is more a pick against the Brown’s at a touchdown favorite. I don’t trust that and neither should you.

CHICAGO -3 vs. Vikings – This one feels too easy – better team laying only three points. Yes, it’s on the road but at this point in the season I don’t care as much. The Vikings have nothing other than AP for moving the ball and CHI plays him enough to know how to shut-him down. I’ll take my chances with that Defense rather than hoping Vikings keep it close.

NEW ENGLAND -3 vs. Texans – Finally a good MNF game. I think this really sets up well for New England to make a statement. This should be a good playoff preview regardless. If the pass-rush of Houston can’t get to Brady, then I think it’s game over though. It would be nice though if Denver could pass one of them for the bye.

Good luck!