The Backdoor Cover: Week 15 NFL Picks

Week fifteen starts a pivotal time in NFL betting. The last few weeks of the season, this is money time for the books. It never fails that the popular bets fall much more frequently.

It all culminates in week 17 where lines are backwards because of teams resting players or no motivation. It is much like your own fantasy leagues. With this in mind, I’ve capped my games accordingly.

Had only my second losing week of the entire NFL season last week. I’ve been nothing if not steady. The odd thing is that I won my Thursday and Monday night games, which has been a rarity. I do feel good about these games oddly enough.

Not NFL but the most popular betting this time of year is college bowl season. I had an idea of a strategy to use for this season. I use progressive betting in MLB and it’s very successful. Take the underdog in every game for a unit. If you win, start over. If you lose then double up. If you have a big bankroll, you should be fine. Underdogs always cover frequently, especially until Jan. 1^st historically. After that you should switch to favorites. Just a thought since if you bet NFL I know you bet college. It’s easier to have a set strategy than trying to figure out each bowl game.

On to the picks!

Season record (54-47-3)

Last week (3-6)

NFL

PHILADELPHIA +4.5 vs. Bengals – Finally got a Thursday night game right last week. That’s the good news. The bad news is that it involved the Broncos which I never am wrong when I pick a side in their game. Nick Foles isn’t nearly as bad as I thought he would be, they have some form of a running game and they are at home on a short week. Combine that with getting the magic number of 4-6 points and I can’t wait to barely pay attention to this game. Seriously, the Thursday night games were supposed to be a good thing right? Who picks these matchups?

OAKLAND -3 vs. Chiefs – Usually I try not to have a “favorite game” or one I put a lot more on than any of the others. It’s all about managing money the best you can. The number one question I get asked is which game do you like the best. I can say this week though, it’s the Raiders. They have been at home three weeks and lost the first two. I’m calling it – it’s going to be an Oakland cover pretty easily. Jump on the train with me.

ARIZONA +7 vs. Lions – The Cardinals collapse is reaching legendary proportion. I imagine that winter is Arizona there are much better things to do than keep up with this pile of ineptitude. Mid-way through the year there was a question about the most underachieving fantasy player. It’s no longer a question – it’s Larry Fitzgerald. Game, set, match.

SAN FRANCISCO +5 vs. Patriots – Pure public perception here. The shine is off the Niners lately while the people are lining up to give hugs to the Super Bowl winning Patriots after the demolishing of the Texans Monday night. If NE pulls off an impressive win here, I’ll change my idea but now I’m playing line value.

HOUSTON -9 vs. Colts – This is part two of the above play about going against the Patriots above. I think the Colts are a good team and a great story, but the media is making them out to be on the Texans level. They aren’t. This line has gone up some but it is begging for Colts money. Give me a pissed off Houston team that has something to prove and play for at home.

GREEN BAY -3 vs. Bears – One of the things I pay attention to is how teams do in December and in this case we have the Packers who do very well against the spread vs. the Bears who simply do not. With the Bears banged up, it’s not the time to face a Green Bay squad who is trying to establish an identity heading into the playoffs.

NEW YORK GIANTS +1 vs. Falcons – I fade the Falcons a lot and here I’m getting easily the better team. I think Atlanta will continue to unravel before righting the ship the week before the playoffs start. Either way, we all know that they pretty much blow.

WASHINGTON -1 vs. Browns – I’m banking on RGIII playing in this game and from that perspective, I’ll gladly lay the one with the disparity at quarterback. If he somehow doesn’t play, then this will be a terrible, terrible game I hope I don’t spend one second watching.

TAMPA BAY +3.5 vs. Saints – Not rocket science. Take the team that has something to play for and can run the ball. The Saints have self-destructed the past few weeks and you have to wonder how much motivation is left on a season that has been taken from them by outside forces and turnovers. In this series, the road team usually covers as well. Let’s go Doug Martin.

Good luck!