AT&T National Fantasy Preview

Hunter Mahan faded after a great start, Bubba Watson melted down the stretch on Sunday, and Ken Duke won his first PGA Tour event. The Travelers Championship provided some great drama. Ken Duke turned pro in 1994, back when I was seven years old. I couldn’t imagine playing on the TOUR for nearly 20 years without winning once. The wait paid off for Duke who now belongs to an elite group of PGA TOUR winners. Overall the Travelers was a successful tournament and played out about as expected. It was a short course and the great iron players showed up as usual.

Now we head to a much longer course. The Congressional Country Club, where Tiger Woods will host the AT&T National. CCC is located in Bethesda, Maryland and is a smooth 7,569 yards. That’s one of the longer coruses on Tour when you consider it is only a Par 71 course. This course is the same course that hosted the 2001 U.S. Open that Rory McIlroy ran away with. Remember that the AT&T National Event was not held at Congressional in 2010 or 2011 due to U.S. Open preparations. Keep that in mind if you are looking at past winners.

Congressional is one of the toughest courses on the TOUR so it is no surprise that the past four winners at this event have all been elite. Tiger won this last year and in 2009 as well. Tiger was ranked 1st in Adjusted Scoring both years. Anthony Kim won here in 2008, he was ranked 4th in Adjusted Scoring that year. K.J. Choi won in 2007, the year he finished 8th in Adjusted Scoring. There aren’t going to be any Derek Ernst’s or Ken Duke’s winning this event. All four of those previous winners also finished in the Top 15 in Par 4 Scoring Average, and Top 30 in Par 5 Scoring Average. Basically we’re looking for golfers playing out of their minds this year and golfers that aren’t going to be afraid of a tough course like Congressional.

Let’s take a look at Yahoo! Fantasy Golf Options:

Group A

Brandt Snedeker: Sneds has been rather quiet since his rib injruy became public knowledge. He’s had two weeks off since the U.S. Open so he should be pretty fresh. He is the most qualified golfer in terms of pure stats are concerned. He is 7th in Adjusted Scoring, 7th in Par 4 Scoring Average and 40th in Par 5 Scoring Average.

Bill Haas: Haas is a par machine, which can be very beneficial at a tough course like Congressional. If he can find a way to sneak in 15 birdies, look out. He’s played here four times and finished Top 40 three of those events.

Charles Howell III: He’s got the stats to make you take a look at him but this course is just too long for him. He’s finished 68th or worse in three of the four events he’s played here.

Chris Kirk: Kirk is 1st in Scrambling, 3rd in Bogey Avoidance, and 4th in Par 4 Scoring Average. The Problem? Lack of experience at Congressional. He finished 106th here last year, his lone appearance at CCC. He’s got the stats but its hard to back him with confidence at a course like this.

Group B

Hunter Mahan: Starting at The PLAYERS, Hunter has finished 19th, 26th, 16th, 4th and 24th. That’s solid golf and nobody has a better track record at Congressional (except for Tiger). Hunter is a must start this week.

Freddie Jacobson: Freddie Yacht Club has very good history at Congressional. His last three appearances here have returned 14th, 2nd and 40th places. His two weak spots are Par 3 performance and Birdie Percentage. Even with those pitfalls, Jacobson should have a solid Top 25 performance this week.

Graham DeLaet: Want proof on why DeLaet is the best long-iron player on TOUR right now? From 175-200 yards out, DeLaet is hitting the green 61.6% of the time. The average is 53.5 percent. Even more impressive is from 200+ yards. Graham is hitting the green 70% of the time from 200+ yards. The PGA Tour average is 42.9 percent. DeLaet’s pitfall continues to be his putting, where he ranks 90th in Strokes Gained Putting.

Jim Furyk: Jimmy has had some good times at Congressional. He finished 3rd in 2007 as well as 2008. Then finished 7th in 2009. Unfortunately he missed the cut when the U.S. Open was played here and then finished a mediocre 34th place last year. Furyk has been really lackluster this year, but I am going to trust course history in this case.

Group C

Bryce Molder: Have a whiff at these stats… 12th in Strokes Gained Putting, 18th in Scrambling Percentage, 21st in Par 4 Scoring Average, 40th in Par 5 Scoring Average, 45 in Bogey Avoidance, 60th in Birdie or Better Percentage, 68th in Par 3 Scoring Average. Those are some key stat categories, people, and Molder is Top 50 in five of them. For whatever reason he can’t put those stats together. It all comes down to scoring and Molder has lacked that…so far. Molder is due to break out and this week is a great chance for him to do so. Molder finished 42nd here last year and 4th back in 2009. Hop on the Molder bandwagon this week and don’t look back.

Jason Day: Day has five Top 10 finishes this year, two of them being in Majors. Day finds a way to compete whenever a hard course is involved. You’re going to feel pretty dumb if you leave Day out of your lineups this week.

The TOUR has played at Congressional five times since 2007. The only golfer that has finished Top 50 in all five events is….drum roll please… Robert Garrigus. He’s been really quiet since hurting his wrist earlier in the year but there is a good chance you see a performance out of him this week.

Keepers

Sleepers

Top 15 for the 2013 AT&T National

1. Brandt Snedeker
2. Freddie Jacobson
3. Hunter Mahan
4. Jason Day
5. Bryce Molder
6. Ryan Palmer
7. Bill Haas
8. Adam Scott
9. Jimmy Walker
10. Justin Leonard
11. Charley Hoffman
12. Jim Furyk
13. Charles Howell III
14. Pat Perez
15. Graham DeLaet

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