John Deere Classic Fantasy Preview

The Swedes have been all over the leaderboard this year so it was about time one of them won. I did not think Jonas Blixt would be the Swede that did it, but I’m not complaining. Blixt was one of my sleepers at the beginning of the year, but he was rather quiet until last week. Maybe this will just be the beginning for Blixt.

This week we head to the Midwest where a bunch of guys with sticks will be trying to put a little white ball into the hole, repeatedly. The course we head to this week is known as TPC Deere Run and is located in Silvis, Illinois; About 20 minutes from the Iowa border. This course is a short one, only 6,900 yards, and was designed by Steve Stricker, himself. Not really, but you would think so with the way it sets up perfectly for him.

Check out this tweet I re-stumbled upon. Jason Sobel of Golf Channel tweeted this last year and I decided to “favorite it” at the time to see how well the prediction held true. He was spot on with Graham DeLaet, who has been knocking on the door seemingly every tournament. Could this be the week Brian Davis or Brendon de Jonge climb into the winner’s circle? I certainly hope so because I am all aboard the Brendon de Jonge train this week.

You better think twice before picking your favorite bomber this week. Chicks dig the long ball but TPC Deere Run does not. Since 2007, the average Driving Distance rank of all the golfers finishing inside the Top 5 each year has been 107th. Only three golfers inside the Top 25 in Driving Distance have even finished in the Top 5 over the last six years. To put that in comparison, there have been 35 golfers that have finished Top 5 or better in that six year period. Three out of 35 are not good odds. Avoid the long-drivers this week.

Instead, TPC Deere Run favors the saavy veteran who knows there are plenty of birdie opportunities available and knows when to push it and when to settle for par. I wouldn’t blame you if you picked a team of golfers this week who are all over 35 years old. This week you want to pick golfers that excel in the following categories: Par 3 Scoring, Scrambling Percentage, and Bogey Avoidance. Here are some possible picks for the 2013 John Deere Classic:

Group A

Chris Kirk: Top 25 in Scrambling, Par 3 Scoring, Par 4 Scoring, Putting, Bogey Avoidance, and Birdie or Better %. Plus he’s had some success at this tournament, finishing Top 30 in both attempts. Could be a solid one-and-done play if you’ve already wasted Stricker.

Brendon de Jonge: A rough third round last week held back this big guy. Still finished the Greenbrier tied for 17th place. Hard to argue with Top 25s. Now we have another course that de Jonge should eat alive. Brendon has gone back-to-back-to-back Top 20s over the last three John Deere Classics. Another Top 25 is pretty reasonable expectations. I am going a step further, and declaring him my winner this week.

Charles Howell III: What stats did I say were important this week? Par 3 Scoring, Scrambling Percentage, and Bogey Avoidance. Howell ranks 14th, 4th and 5th on Tour in those three categories. He is certainly due for something big this week.

Chez Reavie: Had an abysmal 2012 season but has returned to form in 2013. His Adjusted Scoring rank in 2011 was 76th on Tour then he dropped to 137th in 2012. Now he is playing like a golfer trying to prove he belongs, and is currently 33rd in Adjusted Scoring. He finished 5th here in 2011 and may do something very similar this year. Hard to justify him over Kirk, de Jonge and Howell, though.

Group B

Steve Stricker: The course history is strong with this one. Most people have been waiting all year in one-and-done leagues for this particular occasion. They were considering renaming this tournament to Steve Stricker Classic before last year when he broke his three-time defending champion status and only finished a measly 5th place. Stricker’s local knowledge and course success makes him a no-brainer this week.

Zach Johnson: I am picking ZJ, but I am not happy about it. I hate picking golfers that are this out of form. Johnson has finished outside the Top 50 seven of his sixteen tournaments in 2013. In the end, you can’t ignore his local knowledge at this course, as it is right where he grew up.

Troy Matteson: The Ultimate high-risk/high-reward guy this week. Matteson has three Top 10 finishes here at TPC Deere Run but also has three finishes outside the Top 90. I am bringing him along in case he has one of the Top 3 finishes, again.

Louie Oosthuizen and Keegan Bradley: Both have little or no experience at Deere Run but they have the winning pedigree. I figure you got a 50/50 chance of one of them doing something this week. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to throw both of them on your Yahoo! bench and only put them in if a Top 3 bonus might be in the works.

Group C

Matt Jones: Jones has been hit or miss at TPC Deere Run. He has two Top 5 finishes but three finishes outside the Top 110. He has been playing really good golf this year including six Top 25 finishes in 2013. That kind of form leads me to believe we’ll see closer to 5th place than 110th.

Luke Guthrie: Guthrie is a local (shown right). Native of Illinois, went to college at U of Illinois and finished 5th here last year in his first John Deere attempt.

Jonathan Byrd: I see a little Byrdie sitting way down on the bottom of that Yahoo Group C list. He’s 35 years old now and only made three cuts in 12 tries this year. Has the old age gotten to Byrd, or will a familar venue rejuvenate him to a solid finish to 2013? Might be worth a second look.

Jordan Spieth: One of my favorite young golfers but I have been leaning more to the side of golfers that have been there and done that. Spieth doesn’t fit the bill.

Jerry Kelly: Another local boy who grew up in Wisconsin so he is familiar with the course, weather, grass, etc. Don’t be surprised when Kelly makes one of his famous fourth round charges to climb up the leaderboard this weekend.

Keepers

Sleepers

Top 15 for the 2013 John Deere Classic

1. Steve Stricker
2. Brendon de Jonge
3. Chris Kirk
4. Kevin Streelman
5. Charles Howell III
6. Jeff Overton
7. Jerry Kelly
8. Zach Johnson
9. Brian Davis
10. Matt Jones
11. Ryan Moore
12. John Senden
13. Luke Guthrie
14. Jordan Spieth
15. Louis Oosthuizen

Weekly Contests

Golfradar: No matter how long you look, you aren’t going to find a more unique and interesting Fantasy Golf experience than GolfRadar. Pick up to 10 golfers ranging from 5 to 20 coins each. Earn Top 10 and Winner bonuses. The possibilities are endless and the prizes are good.
Enter the Future of Fantasy Match Now

DraftDay: DraftDay offers a basic salary-cap Fantasy Golf game. Their weekly match entry fees range from $1 to $215. Start with something small and start entering the big ones if you have some success. Pick your Six Golfers Now

FanThrowDown: FanThrowDown offers some of the best Guaranteed Double Up contests. All you have to do is finish in the top half of the league and you double your money! Start Drafting Now