Backdoor Cover: Week 6 NFL Picks!

Welcome to the sixth week of the NFL season!

Last week: 6-2 ATS

Not too shabby last week. I tell you, the sky is the limit my friends when I finally get a Thursday night game to go my way. Behind the wheel of that win was none other than Brandon Weeden proving miracles do happen kids. The flip side of my Thursday issues is that I have one loss picking both Sunday and Monday night games. Not sure of the correlation, but I am glad that I have been racking up at the end of the slate each week. Definitely not complaining.

It’s odd being a long-time Denver fan these days. I’ve been one my whole life and my earliest Bronco memories are from the late 80’s. There was a ton of exposure during the great two-year Super Bowl wins, which was great. However, then we wandered the desert for a while. Brian Griese was supposed to be the savior. All I know is that the next era of Denver was one where it was lonely being a fan. Then it all changed with Josh McDaniels and his famous first round draft pick. Somehow, Demaryius Thomas didn’t get the publicity that night he deserved. It was odd cheering for Tim Tebow (but I did) because the games were brutal to watch but the wins were there enough.

*side-rant* I’ve always thought a NFL team that has no great QB should experiment with extreme running game with QB and play defense/conservative. The Tebow years are proof that there is a place in the NFL to be competitive for that.

After the Tebow circus, arguably one of the greatest quarterbacks joined and it’s been nothing but good times (minus Baltimore last year) and high expectations. It’s really weird seeing how much coverage Denver gets now. The most talked about line of the week has definitely been Denver -27.5 against Jacksonville. Despite favorites of greater than 21 points being 1-7 ATS since the 70s, I’m not touching it this week. Jacksonville is just that bad. I’m just getting used to being the big favorite and all the people I see in Mississippi now wearing Broncos gear. These times are going to sustain me in five years when we are going 4-12 with Carson Palmer (yes, Carson Palmer) as our quarterback.

Last week I did well going with almost all home games. This week I’ve taken some teams off byes that need to get that first win. Kinda risky but think they show up and the trends in that situation back me up. My record for the entire season is 23-19-1.

On to the games!

NFL

CHICAGO -7 vs. Giants – My shoulder is killing me. I have spent all morning shoveling dirt on the New York Giant’s season. I’m banking they are done. No David Wilson? Seriously, good luck out there with Ron Dayne or whoever is in that backfield this week Eli. I lean the Under too but I’m not pushing my Thursday luck. I just hope there are multiple closeups when the Bears sack Manning so we get quality Eli-face gifs.  

CAROLINA +2.5 vs. Vikings – I’m almost always a card-carrying member of the fantasy football league owners who belong to TEAM LATE ROUND QB. (search for him on twitter, he’s fantastic) In my six drafts this year, I only had one slip-up – I panicked and drafted Cam Newton in the early rounds of a league. Needless to say, he isn’t doing me any favors. However, I have a suspicion that he is waiting to bust out this week and will reward my patience. Just a feeling.

TAMPA BAY +1.5 vs. Eagles – I’m more likely to find Kris Jenner attractive than want to take the Eagles as a road favorite. Seriously, is there anyone more excited these days than Bruce Jenner probably? He’s been given a whole new lease on life. Hopefully he will get to looking a little more normal as a result of being away from that she-witch. Also, take Tampa Bay to cover.

NEW ENGLAND -3 vs. Saints – I fully admit I have underestimated New Orleans this season. I expected them to be a good team but their defense has been better than expected. I’m hoping this line goes back down (started at a PK) before the weekend, but I have no problem backing the Patriots this week. I’ve done really well on New England games this year, either for or against.

BALTIMORE +3 vs. Packers – If I didn’t lose you on the Tampa Bay pick, I’ve probably got you running the other way on this one. I don’t trust the Packers on the road to be a decent team. I’ll take the home team and the small amount of plus points. This would be a great one to get at least +3.5 since I think a field goal game is a real possibility. Plus, Baltimore is a scary place. The fans chant Seven Nation Army which makes them the worst fans in the NFL.

PITTSBURGH +2.5 vs. Jets – Look, I don’t like it either. Pittsburgh has shown exactly zilch this season. However, if they are going to get a win anytime soon this is the place for them. The Jets have overachieved (even by Jets fans admissions) and are due a slip-up to a Pitt team coming out of a bye. If nothing else, we get to watch two Quarterbacks trade interceptions probably.

WASHINGTON +5.5 vs. Cowboys – Maybe I’ve missed something, but I can’t grasp why Dallas is such a popular pick this week. Is it the fact that their defense couldn’t stop a marshmallow from running a slant pattern? Those wet tissues shouldn’t be trusted to hold up against an offense that should have more of an identity coming out of their bye. Should be an entertaining game though if you like overhyped franchises.

SAN DIEGO +1.5 vs. Colts – If you are one of the millions who read this post each week, you know I need absolutely no reason to bet against San Diego. They are a pile of losers stacked on top of other losers trapped in a loser sandwich. However, I think the hate has gone too far according to this line. Or perhaps the Indy/Andrew Luck love has grown to epic proportions. Regardless, I like the Chargers to win the game and keep the AFC West as the preeminent division in all of football.