Planting Weather

The weather for planting has been pretty poor this year. The fields are wet, and they are cold. La Nina has had an effect. When planting intentions were announced, the market reacted by going significantly higher from already high prices. The US needs almost a perfect crop to meet demand.

There is plenty of time yet.  But, for you city slickers that have never tried to grow anything, this spring has been challenging for the farmer.

There is an optimum time to plant corn for the highest yield. It runs until May 10.  If you don’t get your crop in the ground by May, yields go away.  Soybeans are more forgiving.  They require less growing time, and can be put in the ground later.  Often times if a farmer loses his corn crop due to disease or weather, they plug in a bean crop to try and make up some of the difference.

It’s a tricky balance.  Plant when its too wet and the tractor can compact the row and ruin the chance for a developing root system.  If the field gets too dry after planting, roots might not develop correctly.  Too wet, and they may never develop at all.

Here is a rule of thumb for early estimation of the corn crop.

“Corn planted in the first part of May has an average yield decrease of 1 bushel per acre per day, and corn planted in the latter part of May has an average yield decrease of 2 bushels per acre per day. In a normal year, Kentucky’s corn crop is in the ground by May 15 to maintain average yield potential.”

I have been saying since last December, Fed chair Ben Bernanke might be better off hiring a team of meteorologists to predict inflation instead of some high powered economists.  The weather this spring has been horrible for the farm business.  It looks like there is some hot dry weather on the horizon, and if fields dry out fast enough they will get the crop in.

While the Fed doesn’t pay attention to the food and energy sector when it comes to inflation, the average guy on the street does.   If we have a poor crop, that guy on the street is liable to grab their pitchfork and let the number crunchers know.

Read more at Points and Figures