thursday update

SHORT TERM: new uptrend high, DOW +35

Overnight the Asian markets markets rose 1.0%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.8%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 386K vs 350K. The market opened higher at SPX 1375, then hit 1378 in the first few minutes. The SPX had closed at 1373 yesterday. At 10:00 the Philly FED was reported lower: -12.9 vs -16.6, Existing home sales were lower: 4.37 mln vs 4.55 mln, and Leading indicators have turned negative: -0.3% vs +0.3%. The market pulled back after the news to SPX 1371 and then started to rally. Just after 10:00 the FED released this: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20120719a.htm. The rally continued until 12:30 when the SPX hit a new uptrend high at 1380. Then the market pulled back again. Around 2:00 the SPX hit 1372, then bounced into a 1377 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.95%. Bonds lost 8 ticks, Crude rallied $2.50, Gold added $4, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at the 1372 and 1363 pivots, with resistance at the 1386 and 1440 pivots. Short term momentum was quite overbought again before heading back to neutral. Tomorrow is Options expiration friday.

The market opened higher today and eventually made a new uptrend high at SPX 1380. The OEW 1386 pivot range has now become resistance, replacing the previous uptrend resistance at the 1372 pivot range. Once the 1386 pivot is cleared the market should then rally to the next resistance pivot at 1440. This should take some time as there is overhead resistance in the SPX 1402/1403 range, the 1413/15 range, and 1422.

The SOX index continued higher today and has met the expected upside requirements for a potential two year cycle low this past tuesday. Tech stocks should continue to drive this uptrend. If we are early with the SOX cycle low call, the market could selloff to the OEW 1313 pivot again. Therefore, it remains important to monitor the upside progress in the SOX index as this general market uptrend unfolds.

Short term support remains at the 1372 and 1363 pivots, with resistance at the 1386 pivot and SPX 1402/03. Short term momentum declined to neutral after getting quite overbought. The short term OEW charts remains positive from just under SPX 1350 with the swing point now just under 1360. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend hits new highs

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

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