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Your Last Warning, A Huge Sell-Off Could Begin In Days?

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Sam Ro|Aug. 21, 2012,




The Globe and Mail

One of the more bearish strategists out there has been Nomura’s Bob Janjuah.


Back in April, he laid out a roadmap for stocks, which assumed a mid-year rally before a major collapse.

In his July note, he reminded us that his call was unfolding. And he does so again in his note today:

“In terms of markets, the route map I set out in early April and which I affirmed in early June continues to play out extremely well. After correctly calling the late March/early April 1420 high in the S&P500, and also the early June (1270) low, we have also now fully captured the risk-on rally in stocks and credit that began in early June…”

So, what’s next?

Well, this is when things start to get ugly.

Continued below.

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“I now think the correct thing to do – as I also said in April and June – is to prepare for a serious risk-off phase between August and November,” he reiterated. “Over the August to November period I am looking for the S&P500 to trade off down from around 1400…by 20% to 25%…to trade at or below the lows of 2011.”

He argues that the key drivers of this sell-off will be disappointment at next week’s Federal Reserve Jackson Hole speech and realization that the ECB won’t be be able to deliver on their promises.

In his note — titled Time For Action, Warning Over — Janjuah writes that the beginning of the big sell-off is imminent: “While in the extreme short term – days – we think more risk on is possible, we now feel comfortable in flipping from risk on to risk off and positioning for this major risk-off phase.”

However, he does hedge himself a bit:

“Just in case something genuinely new and unusual is happening – we note that the risk-on phase has extended for a few more days than we had originally forecast – and in the interests of prudence, my stop loss on the risk-off call effective immediately is a consecutive weekly close on the S&P500 at or above 1450.”

SEE ALSO: Expert Explains In Detail How The Next Shock Will Shatter The Global Economy >


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    Question   Razz  Sad   Evil  Exclaim  Smile  Redface  Biggrin  Surprised  Eek   Confused   Cool  LOL   Mad   Twisted  Rolleyes   Wink  Idea  Arrow  Neutral  Cry   Mr. Green

    Total 6 comments
    • ElOregonian

      It only gets BITTER from here…

    • Pateriot

      There could be a huge sell within days…also there could be a mild pullback, stagnation, mild gains or a huge rally.

    • prisonerno6

      I have been reading about the Sell Off for over seven moths now, I am beginning to think that it will never happen.

    • Anonymous

      Fear mongering and speculation. One thing is for sure, Americans will drive less while gasoline continues to climb. They should hang all oil speculators from a pole in Times Square, they are the most depraved humans alive. They knowingly and willingly make money off millions of hard working people who have cut back significantly and yet still get shafted. I can’t think of any other group of people who affect so many with their greed other than the Bankers, who are probably oil speculators.

    • Anonymous

      His hair is green

    • Kolta

      Is Janjuah on a ‘no fly list’? Is his nose a glasses for real?

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