Gold – Quarterly Update

AlphaClone posted a fourth quarter 2012  summary of institutional activity in Gold (GLD). Quarter over quarter activity shows an overall decrease in institutional holdings of GLD:

However, as Alphaclone notes there are some very prominent funds with positions in GLD:

For those interested in potential applications of institutional holdings see my tests and post from 2010 here.

GLD remains below its 200 day moving average and there is a clear downward sloping channel, as shown by the Finviz chart below, but GLD did find a bid last week at $152:

From a relative strength perspective GLD is trailing two other major asset classes, US Equities and US Bonds (both long-term Treasuries and Aggregate Bonds). I used ETF Replay to test a relative strength system which went long the one ETF with the highest 6 month relative strength among GLD, SPDR S&P 500 (SPY), iShares Barclays 20+ Treasury (TLT) and iShares Barclays Aggregate Bond (AGG), rebalanced monthly. GLD is currently ranked 4th among the 4 ETFs based on 6 month relative strength (TLT is a close third):

For a contrarian perspective, David Banister of The Market Trend Forecast  predicted a cyclical low in Gold for February 2013 in this article, although gold did surpass his low target price for February. A chart from the article below:

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