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Final Results: 4 Week Daily Study Using the True Strength Index (TSI) Indicator

Sunday, June 23, 2013 12:12

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I have completed my analysis of the 10 ticker symbols traded during my 4 week long daily ‘real-time’ study using the True Strength Index (TSI) indicator along with a self-customized 200 ema indicator.
This study concluded a couple of days ago at the open of trade – Friday June 21, 2013. The Trade Score Card is a spreadsheet detailing each trade and was used to update traders of trade changes to be executed on following morning’s open.
I will show you the trading skills I personally can improve on using charts detailing my ‘real-time’ trades and reveal my retrospectively observed errors in judgement. It is my hope that readers who invest the time to carefully consider the thoughts offered on each chart will benefit from the sharpening of their thinking process and trading skills.
The 10 ticker symbols I attempted to trade in ‘real-time’ using imaginary money and the handicap of calling the trades based on my end of day analysis for entry/exit at the following morning’s open included:
1. Boeing (BA)
2. Crude Oil ETN (OIL)
3. US Dollar Index ETF (UUP)
4. S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
5. Gold bullion ETF (GLD)
6. Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
7. Goldman Sachs (GS)
8. Home Depot (HD)
9. Microsoft (MSFT)
10. Long Term Treasury ETF (TLO)
The link provided for each of the above ticker symbols will take you to a page that shows you (for each symbol individually) what I was looking at each day in ‘real-time’, what my thoughts and concerns were each day and what my trading decision was for that ticker symbol on the open of trade the following morning.
Before we look at the charts, here is an overview of how well I did (and did NOT do) in ‘real-time’. The column titled ‘John’s Real-Time’ shows the outcome of the trades I made. The column ‘Possible’ details the ideal trade outcome with the benefit of hindsight – as you will be shown with explanation in the charts that follow.

	Company, ETF or ETN	Ticker	John’s Real-Time	Possible
1.	Boeing	BA	-0.80%	-2.47%
2.	Crude Oil ETN	OIL	+0.57%	+6.18%
3.	US Dollar Index ETF	UUP	+0.62%	+2.22%
4.	S&P 500 ETF	SPY	+0.50%	+3.48%
5.	Gold ETF	GLD	-1.78%	+6.11%
	Subtotal (1-5)		-0.89%	+15.11%

6.	Gold Miners ETF	GDX	+3.33%	+13.86%
7.	Goldman Sachs	GS	+2.82%	+2.82%
8.	Home Depot	HD	0.00	+5.29%
9.	Microsoft	MSFT	+3.61%	+3.61%
10.	Long Term Treasury	TLO	0.00	+4.48%
	Subtotal (6-10)		+9.76%	+30.06% +20.29%

	Grand Total		+8.87%	+45.17% +35.40%

There were two of the ten symbols I did not trade (HD and TLO). If I throw out the ‘possible’ gains attributed to these two ticker symbols, the apples to apples possible score becomes +35.40% and most definitely humbles my +8.87% effort.
Briefly, there were two interesting things I (re)learned.
First, the TSI and rules work exceptionally well. As you will see below in the charts, nearly all of the possible gains were given by following the TSI and its rules.
And second, if there was a single error in my judgement that seemed to pop up repeatedly, it was my not trusting that when the TSI is below ZERO, the odds favor continued lower price.
Anyway, here are the 10 ticker symbols as traded by me in ‘real-time’, then followed by the same chart but with the optimal outcome using the TSI rules and the benefit of hindsight. The shaded area represents the trading days available during the study.
1. Boeing (BA) My trades:

1. Boeing (BA) Optimal:

2. Crude Oil ETN (OIL) My trades:

2. Crude Oil ETN (OIL) Optimal:

3. US Dollar Index ETF (UUP) My trades:

3. US Dollar Index ETF (UUP) Optimal:

4. S&P 500 ETF (SPY) My trades:

4. S&P 500 ETF (SPY) Optimal:

5. Gold ETF (GLD) My trades:

5. Gold ETF (GLD) Optimal:

6. Gold Miners ETF (GDX) My trades:

6. Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Optimal:

7. Goldman Sachs (GS) My trades:

7. Goldman Sachs (GS) Optimal:

8. Home Depot (HD) My trades:

8. Home Depot (HD) Optimal:

9. Microsoft (MSFT) My trades:

9. Microsoft (MSFT) Optimal:

10. Long Term Treasury (TLO) My trades:

10. Long Term Treasury (TLO) Optimal:

So did you get anything out of this exercise? I hope so!
And what’s next, you wonder? Good question. What would you like to see?
I’ve been tinkering with the idea of a spreadsheet with 30 – 50 ticker symbols from a diversity of market sectors. But no charts each day – that about drove me nuts.
Suggestions?
Keep in touch!
John
[email protected]

http://feeds.feedburner.com/TheTsiTrader

Source: http://thetsitrader.blogspot.com/2013/06/final-results-4-week-daily-study-using.html

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