Batten Down The Hatches

Whatever is affecting the charts is also affecting my spreadsheets, so I am really late with everything and don; have time to troubleshoot it. Well, today it looked like the bears were about to be trapped leaning the wrong way, as we had a nice move up at the pne, but were never ale to get through the resistance in the gap left in mid June. That brought the market down to earth, and it is starting to look like the market is going to stall here. Momentum wise we appear to be ok, as MACD and MACD histogram are rising, but we are in a very  tough resistance zone and that momentum will dry up fast. It’s too early to tell, but my guess is we will head down for a while.

Crude oil seems to be forecasting market moves by a day or so: this turned a day before the SPX, bu unlike the SPX, does not appear to be running out of gas. It is bumping into a pivot point, so it may at least pause here, if not outright stop.

Gold is getting a long awaited bounce, but whether this will be tradeable is a bit doubtful. This has all the earmarks of short covering, and if that is all it is, it won’t go far.

The market is catching a break here as the slaughter is bonds has paused. Paused, not stopped, because this is a very bullish pattern developing in the 10 year yield, and it is highly likely to start going higher, probably sooner rather than later.

UUP gapped up today, so the Dollar index probably went up as well. The relationship between this and he market has not been crystal clear lately, as it was in he early stages of the 2009-2011 rally, but ultimately, a rising dollar will get to the market. This does appear ready to pull back, but it didn’t happen today.

We have been waiting to see if this is a bounce before another move down, or the beginning of another new up trend, and we may have gotten the answer today. If so, batten down the hatches.

I will have the new highs update shortly.