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Obamacare, Massively Changing Microeconomic Incentives in the Macroeconmy

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Obamacare is causing a massive shift in the way every American interfaces with the economy, their job, and eventually will affect how they interface with their family.

Wall Street Journal columnist/economist Steven Moore noticed that as well.  There are no full time jobs because expectation theory is causing companies to change their hiring behavior.  Moore writes,

 ”Firms are just very reluctant to hire full-time workers,” Mr. Funk says. “So they are taking on more temporary help, which is what we do.” ObamaCare imposes new mandates and penalties on companies with more than 50 full-time employees—and even those working 30 hours a week are considered full-time.

He quickly adds: “The problem isn’t just ObamaCare, though. It’s the entire regulatory assault on employers coming out of Washington—everything from the EEOC”—the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission hits companies hard when employees claim age, race or sex discrimination—”to the Dodd-Frank monstrosity. Employers are living in a state of fear.”

Mr. Funk predicts that the temporary-employment industry could nearly double its share of the U.S. workforce, to about 4%, after ObamaCare fully takes effect. That’s good for him, but awful for America.

The American workforce is being forced to shift from last century model of lifetime employment to the gig economy because of government programs and regulations.

Not only does this have effects on the American worker psyche, but it has underlying ripple effects on all kinds of traditional businesses.  If you don’t have a permanent job, you don’t need an office.

Commercial real estate vacancy rates have improved somewhat.  But, in the recent Wells Fargo report they confirmed what Moore was writing about.

We are somewhat concerned that the pace of asset-price inflation has produced a sense that the underlying fundamentals have improved more than they actually have. While nonfarm employment growth improved during first the few months of 2013, the quality of jobs remains heavily skewed toward lower paying professions, which is weighing on income growth and consumer spending. The wealth effect from rising stock prices has helped offset some of this weakness but the benefits have largely been limited to higher-end merchants. Many middlemarket retailers and grocers are struggling and some further consolidation appears to be on the way. Competition from online retailers, discount stores and club stores is also pressuring traditional retailers, leading many to close underperforming stores and reduce space needs.

Vacancy rates fell another 10 bps in the first quarter and now stand at 17 percent.
Absorption and completions stand at historically low levels leaving the market relatively stagnant. While there has been some improvement in the labor market, it has not been strong enough to turn the dial up on the office market.

Headline employment numbers improve, but it’s not due to economic activity.  Government policy, and Federal Reserve policy have put a stranglehold on business expansion.  We are transitioning from an economy that took risk, to one that plays it safe.

The ranks of independent workers are growing.  Pass any coffee shop, and you will see people anchoring themselves into space to drink coffee and pound on their computer.  Many of them are working.

This trickles down into your family.  Not having a permanent job makes it tougher for families to take risk.  They change their behavior.  They might not try to create businesses, and become passive.  Just looking for the next gig to get money in to afford to live.

They may get hooked on government benefits.  They will have trouble building wealth, unless one of their gigs hits it big.  High unemployment, or unstable employment debilitates families.

Recently, I have seen a huge rise in different businesses to meet the coming demand.  Nextspace, Shiftgig, and Desktime are all businesses that will capitalize on this nascent trend.  

They provide a physical/virtual support group for unattached workers.  That’s a group that is rapidly growing, not contracting.

The post Obamacare, Massively Changing Microeconomic Incentives in the Macroeconmy appeared first on Points and Figures.


Source: http://pointsandfigures.com/2013/09/21/obamacare-massively-changing-microeconomic-incentives-macroeconmy/


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    • JohnDavidHanna

      I watch government workers and find that they don’t work all that hard.
      Certainly not as hard as I did when I was required to ‘hit the ground running’ as a software contractor.
      These are not bad people and eventually they get the job done and are often competent.
      Maybe with a 29 hour week and health care we would be better off?
      We can always work more on our own – I am rebuilding an eyesore house – I don’t expect much if any profit but it does add to the neighborhood.

    • lottopol

      “..The reason that no nation, including the wealthiest can allow markets to set the prices of medical care indefinitely is that demand for medical care is inelastic. Demand for a good or service is inelastic if a percentage increase in price results in a smaller percentage decrease in the quantity demanded. Basic economics tells us that sellers facing inelastic demand will continuously raise prices until prices reach the elastic portion of the demand curve. Consequently in every developed country in the world, all goods or services with inelastic demand have their prices regulated by government. Medical care in the USA being the only exception.

      Health care is one of the very few things for which the sellers face inelastic demand. The prices of all other goods and services facing inelastic demand in the USA are regulated by government. Retail electricity service providers face inelastic demand. Consequently, their prices are strictly controlled by all governments worldwide, including the USA.

      The inelasticity of retail electricity is obvious. If Consolidated Edison (ED) or any other electric utility were to triple retail service prices, people might be a little more careful about turning off the lights. Turning off their refrigerators? Watching less television? Not likely. Thus, tripling the price would result in only a small reduction in kilowatt-hours sold. Almost all other goods and services are price elastic. That includes non-medically necessary elective cosmetic and lasik surgery whose prices have actually relatively decreased over time. Medical care in the USA is the only instance in any developed country where any product facing inelastic demand is not substantially price regulated.

      Medical prices are controlled in various ways in the rest of the developed world. In Japan, the land of $100 melons and tiny $10,000 per month apartments, all medical care prices are listed in a book, thicker than the Manhattan telephone directory. The prices set in the book are usually less than a third of those in the USA. An MRI that costs $1,200 in the USA costs $88 in Japan. Japanese insurance companies are private as are most doctors. Japan spends less than a third per capita on medical care than America. However, the Japanese are greater consumers of medical care than Americans. They visit doctors and hospitals more often, have much more diagnostic tests such as MRIs. They also have better health outcomes as measured by all metrics such as life expectancy. They also wait less for treatment than Americans do as Japanese doctors work much longer hours for their much lower incomes.

      Japan’s explicit price controls are roughly emulated in other countries via the use monopsonistic systems. Monopsony, meaning “single buyer” is the flip side of monopoly. A monopolist sets prices above free market equilibrium. A monopsonist sets prices below free market equilibrium. It does not matter if there is an actual single payer or many buyers (or payers) whose prices are set by the government or by insurance companies in collusion with each other. More competition among sellers generally leads to lower prices. However, more competition among buyers leads to higher prices. In the health insurance industry the beneficial effects of more insurance companies competing for patients are far outweighed by the adverse effects of insurance companies competing for doctors and hospitals in their HMO plans. This was completely misunderstood during the recent debate on health care reform. With health care, more competition among insurance companies on balance results in higher prices.

      Focusing attention on the insurance companies, which are simply intermediaries between the doctors and the patients, was a tragic error. It would like trying to solve a problem of high energy prices by focusing on gasoline stations. Only if the government sets prices can health care prices be controlled. Controlling prices does not automatically result in longer waiting times. Japan and Switzerland generally have shorter waiting times to see doctors than does the USA. Additionally, if prices were controlled there would be no such thing as “in-network” or “out-of-network” since all doctors would accept all insurance plans…”
      http://seekingalpha.com/article/1647632-obamacare-and-beyond-the-outlook-for-the-healthcare-sector

    • Jenasus

      Obamacare will send you to a FEMA Concentration Camp to have your head chopped off with a guillotine, be gassed to death and or be implanted with a chip. Mark of the Beast.

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