City, Suburb or Country? Where to Live

GDP was 4.1%. Shocking. It’s the first time during the Obama presidency that GDP has registered real growth. Under 3% is anemic. It shows me that even with bad government policy at virtually all levels, the American economy is amazingly resilient. We will have to see if it continues.

Where do Americans prosper in this economy? I was reading a Forbes article about the demographics of where Americans live and work and at what age ranges.  Certainly, the data is muddled and I don’t think the book has been written yet.  But, there seems to be a cyclical lifetime effect.

If you are younger, it is likely that you live and work in a city.  It is also likely that you work in a city with a good economy based on tech.  San Francisco, Seattle, and Austin all racked up massive gains in younger people.  Washington DC is on the list as well, but I always discount DC because of the effect of the federal government.

What’s interesting to me is where they are headed next.  The result may surprise you.  It’s not NYC or Chicago.  Chicago is losing people at every demographic level. Orlando, New Orleans, Las Vegas, Miami, Houston and San Antonio all placed high.  I have seen first hand the change in New Orleans since Katrina.  Some of the growth can be chalked up to starting from a low denominator. It’s easy to put on gains when starting from a low level.  Additionally cities like NOLA and Houston have been highly affected by the growth in the energy industry.  I remember in the 1980′s when cities like that got run over.

Why is this data important?

Because it’s getting really hard to move in America.  Obamacare makes it much harder to transition from place to place.  For example, if I leave Illinois, I lose my Health Savings Account and have to redo my insurance.  That has become a very bureaucratic process with lots of loopholes and catches.

Once people get older, they get ties to a community.  Kids, family and familiarity keep them in place.  That’s why it’s important to see the data to see where younger generations are choosing to start.  Post age 35 people are also the people with the most potential to earn a living.  That money gets cycled back into the local economy.

As we look at here and now problems of college debt, the ability to earn income, and the costs of housing and raising a family, the macro picture becomes even more important.  Older millennials are opting out of headline cities like NYC, LA and Chicago and choosing Raleigh, Charlotte, and Tampa.  It’s just easier to make ends meet there.

People are choosing the south.  The weather is milder, and despite impressions about old line southern culture and conventions being socially restrictive, the overall political climate is “freer”.  People have more individual liberty in southern states than highly regulated nanny state cities.  This has long term political implications.

People are also choosing suburbs over cities.  Despite all the hyperbole about city centers being so attractive, the suburbs are not dead yet.  Most people like the suburbs.

I find that highly interesting.  What do you think?

Related articles

• The Geography Of Aging: Why Millenials Are Headed To The Suburbs
• U.S. Cities Growing Faster Than Suburbs

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