How Far Can The SmartPhone Go?

Last night, my college age daughter baby sat for some kids down the street.  The kids were 4 and 6.  The 4 year old knew how to open Snapchat, take a selfie, and post it to my daughter’s feed.  She babysits a 2 year old that knows how to take a smart phone, open up an app and play games all on her own.

Soon after the Apple iPod ($AAPL) came out, I remember a friend’s little kid having their own with “their” music on it.  The child was 3.  That child is now in their teens.

During my MBA program, I took a macroeconomics class at ChicagoBooth.   Professor David Altig said, “It generally takes 30 years for a true revolution to be adopted and optimized by the whole of society.”  Literally, a generation has to grow up with it and a generation of people have to die.  Some innovations need a network to build up around it.  If you think about past revolutions in communication like Gutenberg’s printing press, people needed to learn how to read and books had to be written before the innovation could make a societal difference.  Of course, one of the results was the Renaissance.

We are in the early innings of a radically different and new tech enabled Renaissance.  As anyone knows, technological costs keep dropping.  Connectivity is increasing.  Speed and Bandwidth are increasing.  In many ways, I wish I was much younger because what we are about to see happen in the world is going to be amazing.  We will use them for everything, even in court.

The internet didn’t happen for the mainstream until around 1995 (Netscape $MFST).  2025 is the 30 yr mark.  If the first smartphone was released in 2002, what is the world going to look like in 2032?  In 2052?  In 2252?

It boggles the mind.  I am not fearful of change and progress.  I am hopeful for what it can do for people.