weekend update

REVIEW

The market started the week at SPX 2384. After a rally to SPX 2394 on Monday the market pulled back to 2380 on Wednesday, and retested it on Thursday. Then the market rallied to end the week SPX 2399, its highest level since March 1st. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.45%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.0%. Economic reports for the week were generally positive. On the downtick: the Q2 GDP estimate, the WLEI, the PCE, construction spending, ISM manufacturing and the ADP. On the uptick: personal income, auto sales, ISM services, factory orders, monthly payrolls, consumer credit; plus weekly jobless claims, the trade deficit and the unemployment rate all improved. Next week’s highlights: the CPI/PPI, retail sales and wholesale/business inventories.

LONG TERM: uptrend

We continue to believe a Secular growth cycle began in 2016, following 16-years of a Secular crisis cycle. During the crisis cycle we experienced a dotcom bust, 9-11, a war in the Middle East, a housing boom/bust, an international banking crisis, quantitative easing, US debt nearly quadrupling, and the middle class nearly became extinct. In response to this, the US electorate choose a businessman who had a plan and campaigned on Making America Great Again. It’s the right time, hopefully its the right person. If not, they will choose another in four years. Despite some character flaws he has the Saeculum in his favor, and we think he will succeed. If correct the secular growth cycle should last 16-20 years.