With each week and month that goes by, this market continues to make liars and fools out of the bears and pundits who are still anticipating the end of this bull market (myself included). As I prep for my summer vacation, I am long [DIA Sep 29th '17 215 Call] that I bought into last week. Today has been a good day for DIA up 2.50% for the month.
|DIA daily chart [long sep29'17 215 call]|
For those who have been following TRIN Café over the years, I have been a big advocate of buying long puts and calls, 90, 120 days out. I’m not claiming it to be rocket science, if your able to buy into a trend and withstand the gut check pullbacks, the reward can be a nice profit. For your amusement and reading pleasure, do a search here and here on TRIN Café for DIA, I remember way back when DIA was below 135.
“now that I am long, perhaps the end is very near now?”
In the below daily chart, I’m tracking the 60, 90, 120, and the 200 day moving averages. Just for sh!ts and giggles I added the Andrews Pitch Fork indicator (I can’t say this indicator ever made me any money). I’m honestly surprised the market has gone this far this late into 2017… now that I am long the market, perhaps the end is very near now? Only if I had the power of Mister Geppetto over the market, I would keep it going higher for the sake of my DIA call until the end of summer.
The multitude of potential market hazards and road bumps are so numerous, I don’t see the benefits of trying to track them all, take your pick of what could scare the market into their bunkers.
1. Middle East Quagmire (I’m too jaded to see a peaceful end to the conflict)
- Russia condemns US downing of Syrian warplane
- US responds to Russian threat after shoot-down of Syrian jet
- US, Russia, Iran draw new red lines in Syria
- Syrian Civil War Map
- Qatar ready to prop up banks
2. Terrorism (Hateful and attention seeking misguided)
3. North Korea (I could not fathom an N. Korea nuclear attack, it would be Kim Jong Un suicide)
- Kim Jong Un lives in fear of assassination by western ‘decapitation’ team, says report
- N. Korea Wants to convince the world it can nuke Hawaii
- Should Americans Fear North Korea’s Nukes?
4. Economic Data (Markets are playing close attention)
|How much lower will unemployment get?|
- China housing bubble?
- The average Bull Market period lasted 8.9 years with an average cumulative total return of 468%. The average Bear Market period lasted 1.4 years with an average cumulative loss of -41%. According to ftportfolios.com
- How Long Will the Trump Bull Market Last?
- FOMC Data
5. Trump Presidency (I hope the best for my country which includes the President)
- Trump defiant as pressure grows
- Trump Drama?
- Trump Not Under Investigation for Obstruction, Lawyer tells…
Bonus Market Indicator6. Fidget Spinners! (Are you serious? A trend that I can’t wrap my head around)
When the next bear market introduces itself, economist and pundits will use the benefit of 20/20 hindsight to point to either a tech bubble, housing, or a credit tightening as the beginning of the latest bear market. I’m going to point to the rise and fall of fidget spinners!
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