ES Morning Update August 9th 2018

Not a whole to say today that wasn’t said yesterday. The market are again about flat and doing a whole lot of nothing this morning. It’s a sideways to slightly down move, which on this 6 hour (and shorter time frames) it looks like a bull flag. And that suggests another move higher is yet to come. Personally I think it’s going to be a failed bull flag and the high was put in on Tuesday the 7th. If it doesn’t fail then I still think the upside is very limited here. Maybe a slight move higher then Tuesday but not much. There’s a possible FP on the VIX showing 10.17 that happened last night afterhours. A move down in the VIX to hit that fake print would mean a slightly higher high in the futures and the SPX/SPY… so possible, but I’ll remain short regardless. The bigger picture says we are topped or very close to a top and the next 100 points (or more?) is down.

On this 6 hour chart you’ll see that the MACD’s have crossed from positive to negative now. While that certainly doesn’t mean we can’t turn back up on them to make a lower high and therefore a negative divergence it does imply a move up is exhausted. Support is still the same as yesterday with those two rising trendlines. But if this market really does turn down here they should not hold as they aren’t super strong supports anyway.

Jobless claims come out in half an hour around 8:30 am EST as well as PPI-FD, which might move the market. Usually I start writing the morning update around that time and finish up by 9am or so, then post it. But I got up early this morning and it’s now just a little after 8am. Further updates and charts are of course in the free chatroom. I will remain short until August 22nd unless it becomes super clear that the market isn’t going to turn down this time around. I think the best odds are tomorrow where there’s little “put support” on the open interest of the SPY which could open up the market for a nice drop to get the party started. We shall see…