ES Morning Update October 18th 2018

Today is likely going to be the last day for this up move before we rollover and retest the 2710 SPX lows… which I think will break and we’ll go lower. How low I don’t know? But I’m looking for a top for this bounce today or tomorrow, with today being the preferred day. I’m thinking we’ll get into the 2820-2830 area and then that’s it for this bounce. While it should happen today it could drag out into Friday as that’s the monthly options expiration and market makers love to “pin” the SPY where the most puts expire worthless.

After this move is over with early next week (should be 2-4 days in total) I suspect they will run the market back up into the midterm elections early November. We know they don’t want people focused on the stock market while voting for new (or old) Congressmen and Senators. After the election though I’d look out below as November is going to be a very ugly month for the bulls. Bears should be feasting during that month, and it doesn’t matter what the outcome is for the elections.

It’s all in the charts and they all point to lower levels before this year ends. Big picture… I think we are starting a bear market. It’s the first one since the 2007-2009 market. Yeah, we’ve had some pullbacks and some flash crashes between then and now but that was all during a bull market. Everything now suggests we are entering a bear market. So bounces might be fast and fierce but they should also be reversed back down shortly afterwards. This is only the first bounce of many to come and it’s just about time for it to end. We’ll see if it happens today or tomorrow but today has better odds I think. For today I see weakness early on followed by strength late in the day. If we close up near that topping zone I posted I think that’s all she wrote the bulls and I’d expect Friday to start the next leg down.