S&P: Up, Down or Rally Around?
To answer the question, we need context.
Let’s turn to the chart below:
Following the 18-day uptrend, we saw an Upthrust Change in Trend Pattern when we saw the move above 2874.65 that was followed by the bearish conviction close below 2831.96 on Wednesday, Oct 10.
The minimum target for the Upthrust is the Primary Buy Zone 2576 to 2533. The probable target is much lower – it calls for an 18-day change in trend from up to down. If the change does effect, then the lower target is likely: 2593 with the zone being 2234 to 2102 (basis cash).
In the immediate future, the most likely scenario if for today (Monday) to form a bar between 2781 to 2728 (basis CFD). My scenario of lower prices will be thrown into doubt if we see acceptance above 2856 (basis CFD).
The chart below shows the current condition:
Following the directional move down (HJ), we are seeing the completion of a value-area formation within a Bear Profile. Once the VA area is complete, we should see acceptance below 2708. I’d be looking, this week, for acceptance below the Value-Area Low of the 18-day swing at 2645.80.
How to make use of this info? I’ll let you decide.
Source: http://www.tradingsuccess.com/blog/sp-up-down-or-rally-around-6327.html
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