A Tough Question!
Happy Thanksgiving Day to my US readers!
Crunch time for the markets. To date, much of the sentiment has adopted this view: when push came to shove, as soon as the markets showed signs of continued weakness, the FED would blink. It would at least slow its pace of rate rises.
Well, the weakness is there. The seasonal November strength has failed to show through. I expected a rally ahead of Thanksgiving – sure we saw higher closes for all four indices. But, except for the Russell 2000, the range and volume for the indices were poor. We are unlikely to see much of a guide on Friday – so Monday will be the first day that will serve as a guide for direction into Xmas.
So, yes the danger is there.
On Dec 19. will the FED raise rates? If it does, will it signal a slowing or will maintain its rate rise pace? The decision may well provide the foundation for the near term direction.
There is this lingering belief underlying the indices: the FED will not raise rates should the stock market tank.
Well, the weak structure is there. Will the FED blink? If it doesn’t, I expect to see a 13-week (quarterly trend) bear market. For me, the key level for the cash S&P is 2532 (the Feb 2018 low). Acceptance below that augurs a 13-week bear market.
Let’s see what happens,
Source: http://www.tradingsuccess.com/blog/a-tough-question-6408.html
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