A euro morning driven by German data

This morning’s London forex session centered on the euro, and in particular the importance of understanding the context, cycle, and importance of fundamental news. The news item in question was German Factory orders which came in worse than expected at -4.2% against a forecast of 0.3%. So what was the issue?

First, this was flagged as a tier three release, in other words of relatively little importance. Second, the release related to Germany, the powerhouse of Europe and therefore any manufacturing data is important, and third since Germany is now on the brink of a recession, even more significant. Strange therefore the economic calendar flagged this as minor. This is where the cyclical nature of economic data becomes key as the economy slows, so such manufacturing releases carry greater significance, but not in the minds of those who construct the calendars! It was no surprise therefore to see the euro given another healthy shove lower by the news with only minor buying appearing late in the session.

In the session, we focused on the euro and in particular the EUR/NZD and the EUR/GBP with the Quantum currency strength indicator helping to identify the best trading opportunities.