Trading the Non-Farm April 05, 2019, FX

The FX asset class has trading been tight trading ranges. For the European currencies, we could blame the shemozzle called Brexit; but, the rest?

Anyway, we may see a move to greater volatility today: I’m expecting the Non-Farm Payrolls to be below last month’s number. That came in at an unexpectedly 20k new jobs. Today, the consensus is for around 180K. If we see a number below 20k, we’ll see a move down in the USD.

Why do I think we’ll see a number below 20k?

In 2013, Forex Army did a study of the correlation of the ADP (released Wednesday) and Non-Farm. It found there was a statistical link between the two in terms of direction, i.e. if the ADP is down from last month, the Non-Farm will most likely follow. I’ve found the probability to be in the 73% to 78% range.

If I do trade the EURUSD tonight, it will be as a day-trade only. I still see Brexit turning out to be a ‘no-deal’ event despite what the House of Commons may say.

The post Trading the Non-Farm April 05, 2019, FX appeared first on Ray Barros’ Blog for Trading Success.