The Data Would Tell Them They Are Wrong

One of the things I hear from a lot of folks is that they are “data dogs”. Usually, it means they manipulate data to prove their point. What they don’t want to tell you is they are fanatics. The Democrats in Illinois are like that.

On Memorial Day when everyone had a day off and were supposed to be remembering the fallen, Illinois Democratic lawmakers passed the largest tax increase in the history of the state. It goes on the ballot in 2020. But, my guess is a lot of people won’t be hanging around to vote on it.

Remember, on a state level they are increasing:

1. gas taxes
2. water taxes
3. internet streaming taxes
4. grocery bag taxes
5. health care provider taxes
6. beer, wine and liquor taxes
7. car registration and licensing taxes
8. cab taxes for using services like Uber/Lyft
9. hotel taxes
10. cigarette taxes
11. sales taxes

Here is some data for the “data dogs”;

Illinois lost more people than any other state in the last census. From 2011-2017, Illinois was second in the nation for people leaving. If you don’t understand that, Illinois was 49th out of 50 for in migration.  The state will lose one or two representatives in Congress. Chicago is the largest major metropolitan city with the most outflows. New York and LA experienced outflows too, but Chicago beats them on a percentage basis.  Houston someday soon will become the third most populous city in the US. Illinois colleges are dying. Enrollment at Western Illinois University is at all time lows.  Illinois college age kids are increasingly choosing to matriculate to colleges out of state.  Alabama has thousands of kids from Illinois attending.  My own kids chose to attend schools out of state.  One wound up in LA and the other is in law school.

The huge millennial generation isn’t attracted to Chicago. In a recent survey, Chicago is the third least attractive out of 53 metro areas. Again, if you don’t understand that Chicago was 47th out of 50.  The Chicago job market is growing at less than 1% per year. There just isn’t enough opportunity. Had a friend tell me that in the 70’s if you couldn’t make money in Chicago you weren’t trying. He said that it’s like that in Atlanta today. But, in Chicago, the economic growth is dying. I think it was Kennedy that said, “A rising tide lifts all boats.” Ain’t nothing but the tide going out in Illinois right now.

You might point to the startup community in Chicago as a bright spot.  It sort of is but it isn’t growing as fast as other communities. There is an outflow of people from Silicon Valley and they are choosing places like LA, Seattle, Austin and Denver over Chicago.  It’s really important to look at opportunity costs.  Yes, it grew by this much, but because of other factors, it could have grown by significantly more.

Where the rubber really meets the road is in the housing market. My friend Mark Glennon tweeted yesterday that you better mark down the listing price of your home when the tax increase passed.  Crain’s Chicago Business told the story of a Chicago-area executive who lost more than $500k on the sale of his home when he moved elsewhere. If he had invested the money in the stock market instead, he said, “I’d probably have $6 million now.” There are a lot of people that live in wealthy areas of Illinois in which the value of their home is a miniscule part of their net worth.  A lot of homes in the suburbs are selling for less than they did in the late 1990s. A friend of mine listed their property for less than they built it in 1994.  It’s a great house and has been kept up beautifully in a great school district.  Property taxes are suffocating and they aren’t going down.

Don’t be confused by the large building boom in the city.  With low-interest rates and cheap property, commercial real estate developers can turn a profit even if their buildings aren’t fully sold.  Ask Trump.  At the same time, the city and state need tax revenue so badly they will approve any building project.  It’s not any different than liquor license approval in the late 1800s.  At that time, the only tax revenue the city had and the largest aldermanic boodle honey pot was neighborhood bars which is why Chicago had more per capita than any other city in the country.

You see, Democrats in Illinois just want to control you.  They want to limit your freedom of choice.  A number of years ago, I didn’t think that Chicago could go the way of Detroit.  I still think it might not since the economy is slightly more diverse.  Crime will be the tell there.  If crime increases in areas that the wealthy frequent like Lincoln Park and the Gold Coast, the city will become Detroit.  People will tolerate a lot but they won’t tolerate not having personal safety.  I feel safer walking down a street in NYC than I do Chicago.

Living in Chicago because of access to O’Hare is a diminishing asset as well.  For example, Dallas and Atlanta both have great airports.  For east of the Mississippi business, Atlanta is a good hub.  I can be in and out of a lot of towns on the same day.  Because we are doing a lot of things via virtual, being in a place is less important.  Zoom video is quite good for doing meetings.  You don’t need to reach out and shake someone’s hands for a lot of business transactions like onboarding new clients.

Other states have tried to institute progressive taxes.  Their tax the rich policies have only gotten the rich to move out. NY, Connecticut, New Jersey all saw wealthy people leave in large numbers when they put in highly progressive tax hikes.  Guess what?  Those are the job creators. They are leaving to create jobs somewhere else or they are going John Galt.  Funny thing is Democrats prefer John Galt because Galt was disengaged from the process.  A recession will crush Illinois because it won’t have the tax receipts and the debt markets will not be kind to them.  The tax hike will not save them, it will make it hurt worse.

People aren’t moving away for better weather.

Among my friend group, I don’t know too many people that are staying.  Since 99% of every tax hike goes to pay public worker pensions they know full well that this progressive tax hike along with all the others won’t scratch the surface on the fiscal problems Illinois is facing.  In a flight or fight decision, it’s much more easy to move away and they are.  I guarantee, Chicago’s cultural institutions are not prepared for it.  They are a large reason people stay, or come here.

The Chicago Teachers Union is a union that politicians refuse to stand up to.  They want a financial transaction tax badly.  The question isn’t whether they get it, it’s when.  When that happens it will be game over.  The politicians will try and tax everything before that.  It’s the final nail.

Here are tax proposals that most surely are coming:

1.  City of Chicago income tax for those earning $100k or above  (Mayor Lightfoot will do this, but not right away.  2021 is my best guess since the progressive state tax needs to pass first)
2.  tax on private retirement earnings (not public)  Currently it’s at 0% which is a good deal for retirees. Same as Florida.
3.  tax on services (lawyers, accountants, etc)

The real danger though is the opportunity costs.  People are looking at the cost of moving to Chicago versus somewhere else and choosing somewhere else.  Remember, while real estate is a competitive market it is by no means efficient.  Don’t confuse competition with efficiency.  Transactions happen on a single asset years away from each other.  The people that are here are looking at the cost of staying and the cost of leaving and they are leaving.  Especially when you look at the dollars you are going to lose on the sale of your home where a lot of people have invested savings.  Not only do you lose on the purchase price, but real estate transfer taxes take a bite. The expected future increase in property taxes also figures in along with the increased cost of living.  I can drive to Indiana or Wisconsin to purchase some goods and even some services, but I pay a higher gas tax to do it.

I am shocked at people who tell me that they are staying for a certain school district. It’s as if there are no good schools in any other areas of the country.  Certainly, Tennessee, Indiana, Wisconsin, Texas, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Colorado and Arizona have good schools.  If not public, it’s guaranteed that private schools exist.

So, why am I still around?  It’s not as if I am sitting on my hands and not looking.  Florida has been the destination of choice for my friends.  I have a place in Minnesota, that’s not a tax haven or weather haven.  One couldn’t help but look at other cities and start doing the math on the costs. Number one, I have downsized my footprint in Chicago to be so small that I don’t pay much tax.  Although, relative to property of the same value in other places taxes are indeed high. Of course, compared to a city like NYC, my place is a bargain.  The cost/opportunity cost of moving still weighs in favor of Chicago for me.  For example, the best cities for deal flow for our venture fund’s thesis are New York, London, and Chicago.  Because companies we invest in fall in a special tax category, we pay no taxes on some of the gains.  This is part of the federal tax code. Before you get your panties in a knot, the investments are super high risk.  When the costs to operate out of Chicago are lower than the costs to operate in Chicago I will move.  Most people are not like me with variable income and reliance on making money off of an investment.