Mr. Market And Coronavirus
Whoosh. Markets always drop faster than they rally. Don’t know if you looked at your brokerage statement but I looked at mine and I am worth a bit less than I was a week ago. As TastyTrade‘s Tom Sossnof says, don’t look. Go for a walk. You’d be better off opening up Tastytrade’s YouTube channel and watching them chat about the market rather than watching regular news channels.
A lot of youngsters think this is a devastating break. It’s not. It doesn’t look like the beginning of a bear market to me. Bloodlettings like this can be good for bull markets. Gets the froth out.
Devastating breaks are caused by external forces which are a shock to the entire financial system. 1987 was one of those. The market was down 23% in one day. It was the single scariest day I ever saw on the trading floor. Long Term Capital in the late 1990s was something else too. When I was on the CME Board with Gerry Corrigan, he relayed his thoughts at one meeting in an extensive discussion of LCTM. He felt it was a very present and immediate threat to the worldwide financial system and didn’t want to see it again. We had an extensive discussion on Y2K issues which became a nothing burger.
2008 was a clear and present danger to the worldwide financial system. There was no liquidity and the trust that existed between banks in the interbank lending market vanished. I lost a huge chunk of my net worth between 2008-09. It totally sucked and that break in the market will permanently affect the generation that was in college and high school during it.
None of those conditions exist today. There is no shock to the worldwide financial system. What we have is something different. The world doesn’t trust any data coming out of the Chinese government. Given their actions over the course of time, they have earned their untrustworthiness. Additionally, the Democratic Party and the media enablers who support them need an existential crisis to try and bring down Trump. They have no good alternative right now. Hence, CNBC anchors are foaming at the mouth talking about coronavirus.
That breeds a stew that can cause a market drop.
Rationality will eventually take hold. If I were a corporate treasurer I’d be buying back my stock with both hands. I had some cash in some retirement accounts and I bought the other day. I told my kids to take some excess cash they had for IRAs and buy. Now is not the time to sell. Besides, going short America is always a bad idea.
I have some old trader friends that don’t think the market drop is focused on coronavirus. They think it’s Bernie’s commanding lead in the Democratic polls. I don’t agree with them but it’s something to gnaw on.
This is also not a situation where the tide is going out permanently and we will see what everyone looks like with no clothes on. The tide will return soon enough. It will probably be higher than ever.
For some reason these days, social media makes things a lot bigger than they ought to be. Startups all of a sudden get concerned about coronavirus when they should stay focused on whatever they were focused on before this all happened. One can only control their own behavior.
I don’t think we should take coronavirus lightly and pass it off but it is important to keep it in perspective.
My friend Brian Kasal released a podcast on the market today. You can hear it here.
Secondly, here is a link to an interview with a United States infectious disease doctor about coronavirus. If you don’t feel like clicking the link, here is the shorthand. Wash your hands, a lot. Get a flu shot so hospitals aren’t overwhelmed with flu cases and can handle coronavirus cases. Masks aren’t really going to help you and I find it hilarious that there are guidelines for people with beards and moustaches. I feel like Gillette manufactured the crisis.
Beating coronavirus isn’t rocket science. We have done it many times before in human history. All it takes is development of a vaccine and while it can’t be done overnight, it can be done in short order. More people are getting infected by the flu and dying from the flu and we aren’t panicking about that.
I think the fears are way overblown. I also don’t get fired up that US government agencies have to run their communication through a centralized channel overseen by Vice President Pence. There has been more than enough history of leaks, off topic and deceptive communication from government people not aligned with the administration to put a tight leash on it. The last thing they need is someone using a communication channel to advance their own personal agenda. Contrary to popular opinion, the US spends a ton of money on preventative care. Trump may have cut the budget but that budget cut was probably just to change an increase from 5% to 3% and everyone screams.
Why the panic about coronavirus? Because it’s statistically very hard to model with any certainty. The other reason is it started in China and given their government untrustworthiness due to totalitarianism, it causes more uncertainty. When you have uncertainty, you can have conjecture and speculation. That leads to more panic and more speculation.
It’s a certainty that supply chains will be disrupted. But, businesses and markets are wonderfully adaptable. It will be a short term thing, not a long one. Coronavirus isn’t a monolith that cannot be removed.
Here is a total conspiracy theory: The media is drawing your attention to the coronavirus to take your attention away from Bernie’s domination and takeover of the Democratic Party.
Yesterday I was walking through a facility with someone I just met. I sneezed and told her I just got back from China. We laughed. Could be worse, we could have been in North Korea.
Source: http://pointsandfigures.com/2020/02/28/mr-market-and-coronavirus/
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Whistler Blowers, Insiders
Anyway some useful INFO
- THE TRUTH IS >>> The Caronavirus PlayBook Is Already Written.
It’s just a repeat of the H1N1 Swine Flu (SARS, MERS, BIRD FLU, EBOLA) – Fake Propaganda Virus Playbook
Just heading into – Chapter 2.
At The End Of 18 months of Swine Flu – Fear Porn
- The World Health Organaisation WHO declared the pandemic over the >>> 18 months had killed JUST ..18,500 people globally
- averaging the figures of lab confirmed deaths – from the 210 countries that report to the W.H.O
>>>> That averages out at LESS THAN 90 (as in Ninety) Swine Flu Deaths Per Country
In Hindsight 18 months of fear porn fake propaganda headlines, >>> over an insignificant, irrelevant virus
And – This Will Be A repeat.
……………………………………..
Caronavirus Took 2 Months To Kill 2,400 (ie a TINY 40 Per Day)
- of old, sick, frail, immuno-compromised and already on their last legs Chinese
- Up to 95% of Infected – Have Symptoms – So Mild – They Won’t Even Notice
- and in most countries – hasn’t even reached a THOUSAND infected
Regular Annual Flu – Kills 88,000 …Chinese per year
7 Million Chinese… Die Of All Causes Per Year
-vs- Caronavirus – UNDER 3,000 !!!
Read the facts – Engage Brain & Common Sense – It’s an insignificant irrelevance – the rest is Rinse & Repeat VIRAL FEAR PORN
………………………………………………………….
Total Prepping Required – IF you are one of the …very few that do get infected
- and NOT one of the 90/95% infected that exhibit >>> NO Symptoms
Or Symptoms >>>> So MILD – You Would’t Even Notice Them …..
- then
It may be prudent to perhaps – buy a small box of paper hankerchiefs/tissues… & Voila …..FULLY PREPPED & Ready
>>> READ ON
…………………………………
LETS GET INITIAL OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT CONFIRMATION (Fuller Details Lower Down on THE ACTUAL NUMBERS)
………….CANADIAN GOVERNMENT / HEALTH CANADA …………….
QUOTE “coronaviruses are common …..and are typically associated ….with mild illnesses,
similar to the common cold. (Unquote)
QUOTE >>> Those who are infected with COVID-19 may >>>>have little to >>> NO symptoms.
You may… NOT KNOW ……you have symptoms ….of COVID-19
because they are similar to …. a COLD or flu. (UNQUOTE)
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/symptoms.html
(& see Quotes At Bottom)
…………………………………….…………….
For the… very few …that do get infected noticeable symptoms, …. typical signs include
- A RUNNY NOSE
- A COUGH
- A SORE THROAT / Fever (high temperature).
The vast majority of patients – at least 97 per cent, ….. based on available data – will recover from these >>>> without any issues or medical help.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7987001/Death-toll-killer-coronavirus-10-TIMES-higher-average-Chinas-Hubei-province.html
………………………………………………….
Its such a happy clappy insignificant symptoms virus – its about as pleasant as you could make – thank you to God or Whoever – good job.
Lest We Forget ….. Ooooh Less Than 100 Suspected Cases Out Of 300 MILLION Americans – That’s ‘erm, well – nicely .… very significantly LESS than a PI$$ In The Ocean too really ….isn’t it
And Based On How Things Have Gone In CHINA So Far – It A case Of >>>>
…………………………………………………………………………………………….
MOVE ALONG FOLKS – NOTHING TO SEE HERE – ALL OVER – JUST MOVE ALONG – GET ON WITH YOUR LIVES
CHINA
Yes 2,400 Died Of Caronavirous in 2 months (60 Days) – An Average >>> Really VERY TINY >> 40 Deaths A Day
- Seasonal Flu Kills An Average 88,000 Per Year (Caronavirus Has Managed 2,400)
- 7 MILLION Chinese Die Per Year – Caronavirus Has Accounted For 2,400
And Studies/Reports State whilst there are only 80,000 Confirmed Infections – There Will be 10X that number
- YES 3/4 MILLION + with Symptoms SO MILD – they Won’t EVEN NOTICE THEM
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
So Move Along Folks – Everywhere Is Opening Up Again – Just Move Along Folks – It Was Just The Usual Fear PORN – Move Along …CONTINUED
INTERNATIONAL NEWS CHANEL RT NEWS ….. Evidence ….. >>>> Propaganda Fatigue ….Setting In
Already Macau CHINA , the world’s biggest gambling hub, …..will allow casinos to resume operations from…. February 20,
…. after authorities imposed a two-week suspension to curb the coronavirus’ spread, authorities said on Monday,
Macau has not reported >>> any new cases of the virus>>> since February 4, … officials said.
There have been >>>> ONLY 10 confirmed cases of the virus – in total there.
Government services, which had mostly been suspended since the start of February, ….. have gradually resumed operations this week.
https://www.rt.com/newsline/481005-macau-casinos-virus-fear/
So Move Along Folks – Move Along – Nothing To see Here – Get On With Life – It’s All Over Folks 2,400 deaths and new cases plummeting – Predominantly Sick, Elderly, Immunocompromised, & usual already on their last legs ….. out of 1.3 BILLION CHINESE
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
NB 10 February 2020 BLOOMBERG
The new coronavirus might have infected….. at least 500,000 people in Wuhan, ….the Chinese city at the epicenter of the global outbreak, …..by the time it peaks in coming weeks.
But…… most of those people…..>>>> won’t even know it.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-08/virus-outbreak-in-wuhan-may-soon-peak-with-more-than-5-infected
…………………………………………….
LOS ANGELES TIMES
Thousands of people in China and elsewhere ….have been infected ….. but have had…
>>>> such mild reactions that >>>> no one even noticed,
- said Dr. Tom Inglesby, director of the Center for Health Security at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-01-24/china-coronavirus-panic
……………………………………………………………………………………………..
The UK’s BBC News COMMENTS – Re INFECTED – HAVING SUCH MILD REACTIONS >>> NO ONE NOTICED
>>> FROM THE LARGEST STUDY TO DATE (The paper by the CCDC, released on Monday and published in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology, looked at more than 44,000 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in China as of 11 February
………………………………….
– So Known Infections Quoted In Study – 72,436 x 10 = 724,000 Who Will Have Had Symptoms – Too Mild – To Notice – YES >> ¾ Million
…………………………………..
QUOTE >>> Re The Known 72,436 infections
- Scientists have estimated there could be …..10 times as many people infected ….. as are ending up in the official statistics.
That ALSO means the….. overall death rate IN THE REST OF CHINA (Outside Hubei) is likely to be
>>> lower than the 0.4% (rest of China) reported in this study (ie 10X LOWER – Making the death rate potentially ONLY 0.04)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51540981
……………………………………………………………………..
So Theres Proof Of Precedence – How This Caronavirus Runs
So Ignore the PROPAGANDA FEAR PORN – ENGAGE BRAIN PUT COMMON SENSE IN GEAR & JUST PARTY ON