Could stock markets plunge yet further? Making sense of the current turmoil
Q: How does this compare with previous cycles? The main difference is that it’s been faster; the absolute magnitude of the falls so far is in line with many event-driven bear markets in the past.
Q: What has been the policy response? Swift and large. Policy has been fast to adjust this time, and we see this as a large positive and likely to prevent this from becoming systemic.
Q: What is required to stabilize markets? Are we there? In our view, there are four components of this: (i) A sign that the policy intervention is sufficient to prevent severe second- and third-round economic shocks; (ii) A sign that the infection rate is reaching a peak; (iii) A sign that the economic downturn may be slowing; and (iv) Cheap valuations. In reality, we believe it will be a combination of these, and in some cases there are already signs these are in place.
Q: Is this now a ‘structural’ bear market? We don’t think so, given the policy in place. However, if this becomes systemic, (ie, rising unemployment, corporate losses infecting the banking sector and leading to a large-scale credit squeeze) then the market could have further to fall; previous structural bear markets saw the market fall by 50% or more, down another 20-25% from here.
Q: Valuations are low, but can we trust this signal? Valuation is a necessary but not sufficient condition for a turn; that said, on some measures and especially vs. government bonds, equities are the cheapest they have been historically.
Q: Will this all lead to inflation? This is a common question and, given the large policy packages delivered combined with supply chain disruptions, we believe this is a risk. However, there are also other factors that may prove ‘disinflationary’ more medium-term too, such as households’ and corporates’ desire to keep a larger cash buffer or some unwind of the inventory build in certain sectors of the economy.
Story by ProactiveInvestors
Source: https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/916115/could-stock-markets-plunge-yet-further-making-sense-of-the-current-turmoil-916115.html
Anyone can join.
Anyone can contribute.
Anyone can become informed about their world.
"United We Stand" Click Here To Create Your Personal Citizen Journalist Account Today, Be Sure To Invite Your Friends.
Please Help Support BeforeitsNews by trying our Natural Health Products below!
Order by Phone at 888-809-8385 or online at https://mitocopper.com M - F 9am to 5pm EST
Order by Phone at 866-388-7003 or online at https://www.herbanomic.com M - F 9am to 5pm EST
Order by Phone at 866-388-7003 or online at https://www.herbanomics.com M - F 9am to 5pm EST
Humic & Fulvic Trace Minerals Complex - Nature's most important supplement! Vivid Dreams again!
HNEX HydroNano EXtracellular Water - Improve immune system health and reduce inflammation.
Ultimate Clinical Potency Curcumin - Natural pain relief, reduce inflammation and so much more.
MitoCopper - Bioavailable Copper destroys pathogens and gives you more energy. (See Blood Video)
Oxy Powder - Natural Colon Cleanser! Cleans out toxic buildup with oxygen!
Nascent Iodine - Promotes detoxification, mental focus and thyroid health.
Smart Meter Cover - Reduces Smart Meter radiation by 96%! (See Video).