Good morning, it’s Paul here.
I’ll be writing Mon-Wed SCVRs this week. Graham has kindly offered to write Thu-Fri, in order to give me a 4-day weekend to celebrate my 52nd birthday! What a kind man! I shall enjoy that!
Probably much like yourselves, I needed to take a good break over this weekend, to recover from such an intense week, trying to work out what the hell is going on with the world, the economy, and the stock market.
Where do we start? Firstly, thank you for all the positive comments, I really appreciate it. I have no idea what is going on, and am just trying my best to interpret it from one day to another. Some will be right, some will be wrong. Anyone who uses words like this “will” happen, is wrong. People should use words like “could”, or “might”. Otherwise, they are charlatans. Nobody knows what will happen.
It’s fine to express opinions. But not to express false certainty. Let’s measure commentators – let’s make a note of what each commentator said on each date, and then challenge them afterwards when they were completely wrong!
I’m the first to admit that, I had no idea the Dow would go from 29,500 in early March, to 18,500 low, then rebound to 27,000 now, all within less than 3 months. This is unprecedented. Anyone who did know this, would be a billionaire by now. Personally I kept my thinking flexible, and survived this turmoil intact. I hope readers survived it all OK.
My latest feeling, for what it’s worth, is to stop fighting market recovery, so I’ve been forced to close my Dow shorts (due to large losses) . Let’s enjoy the longs on recovery – much, much larger than the losses on hedges I should add.. That is clearly the way things are going. Hence I’m about to double up on my recovery longs for the UK economy on Monday.
What do readers think? I think we’ve done a great job of steering through this nightmare.
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