ES Morning Update September 28th 2020

Looks like the bulls did indeed push through that falling light blue trendline over the weekend afterall. I mentioned that it could happen then, or possibly between Monday afterhours and premarket on Tuesday. Next should be a pullback to (possibly?) backtest it, but I don’t expect that today. More then likely they hold this rally and do any pullback on Tuesday.

However, they might have enough bears trapped to keep this going into the first half of tomorrow and start the pullback late in the day or even wait until Wednesday. The expiration Wednesday does have a lot of calls bought at the 3325 strike price on the SPX, so they could do the pullback into the close that day to make them expire worthless if they want too?

That’s quite a bit lower, and it would be back below that falling light blue trendline, which is now support, so they might not want to give it back up again? I’m guessing that two days from now that line will have only dropped to the 3250 area, which will be horizontal support from the highs last Thursday and Friday. I’m looking out too far in advance here (as usual), so let’s just stick to today. I think they will hold the market up by going sideways to slightly down, but nowhere near retesting the light blue falling trendline now down around 3275 or so.

Tuesday I’m not sure but if they plan on a retest of that trendline for Wednesday then it should do that pullback in some ABC move I’d think. So possibly Tuesday does the A down early and B up into the close? The Wednesday does the C down as low as that 3225 level to make all those calls expire worthless.

Really hard to see it going that low again but the market moves big every day now with 50-100 points swings the new normal (unlike the new normal corona virus hoax… LOL). That’s all for now. Have a blessed day.