Monday Market Momentum – Still Going Up

Inflation!

That’s the new word driving the markets.  Of course all this freshly-printed money was eventually going to spill out into the economy but, all of a sudden (after strategy meetings at Davos) all the prognosticators are now spinning inflation as the new reason the markets will go higher and higher.  And it’s a good reason, as you can see from this chart of the M1 Money Supply (physical money), which has jumped from 4Tn to 6.8Tn (70%) in 2020.

Keep in mind it took the United States of America 244 years to get to $4Tn and we just added $2.Tn in one year.  As Admiral Farragut said: “Full speed ahead and damn the torpedoes” and that sums up the Fed’s strategy quite nicely as they have FLOODED the World with Dollars in the past 12 months but those Dollars aren’t moving – because we’re all locked in our houses.  They are moving to Amazon and Ebay and pretty much every streaming sevice on the planet and to ISPs and, of course to Apple and to Grub Hub and Door Dash and Cloud Servers – the stuff we are doing inside but imagine what will happen when we go outside and spend 70% more money than we had in 2019?

Of course there is going to be inflation and, depending on how you model it, there could be MASSIVE INFLATION ahead as 70% more money in circulation can lead to 70% more spending and a 70% boost to our GDP, from $20Tn to $34Tn and that could reduce our debt to GDP ration back below 100% (barely).  We’ve done this before, of course.

After World War 1:

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Provided courtesy of Phil’s Stock World.