ES Morning Update May 4th 2021

A whole lot of nothing happened yesterday. This market is staying quiet range bound with no real breakdown of support, nor a breakout through resistance. One or the other is coming though, and I think it will be this week. Considering that today and yesterday was one of my turn dates I don’t think it will happen until tomorrow at the earliest. I favor a breakout versus a breakdown here because so many others are thinking we rollover, and usually the masses are wrong. I’m a bear at heart but I just don’t see any decent pullback or correction starting just yet.

We need some higher prices first, and then we could see a 3-4% pullback happen. Here in the premarket session you can see a quick drop down around 7:30 am that clearly was done to take out bull stops… at least that’s what it looks like to me. It’s just a little below the last Thursday and Friday bottoms, as well as yesterdays low. And since technically today is a turn date it is a bottom being put in, not a top.

So if it recovers today and starts back up then I’ll start looking for 4240, then 4280 to be the targets. SkyNet is a master at running the stops, kinda like Ms Pacman eating the dots. So now that they took out the stops on the bulls this morning the bears should be next, and all of those stops are sitting right above 4211 right now. If some how we put in a new ATH today as well as new low from the last week or so, then the turn date will be null and void… skipped basically. The market will then be free to run up to my targets and top without any turn date around.

That would be good for the bulls as then they could just do that 3-4% pullback and not worry about a huge drop as they never triggered a turn date top. This about all I see for the month of May, which isn’t exactly the ol’ “Sell In May And Go Away” pattern, but a pullback is still likely. For today I think we’ll bottom early and turn up into the rest of the day.

I don’t know if they take out the current all time high or not, but I do think it’s coming soon… maybe tomorrow? This low in the futures before the open might be retested in the cash market early on, but I wouldn’t count on it. It could have just been to take out the stops on the bulls in the futures only, which is done now I guess. Anyway, that’s what I see for today. Have a blessed day.