ES Morning Update June 4th 2021

Yesterdays drop held support in the 4170 area and recovered as I suspected it would. Upside targets have risen now to around 4320 or so as trendlines rise over time. But I don’t think it’s that easy to just rally one more time to hit resistance and allow all the bears to short it.

No No… they never make it so obvious. I still think we are in a large wave 3 up from the 9/25/20 low where large wave 2 down ended. It started at the top on 9/2/20, which was the end of large wave 1 up from the March 2020 lows. That large wave 1 up was about 1200 points, so it’s reasonable to expect large wave 3 up to equal it in points at least, if not more. The start of large wave 3 was around 3200 on 9/24/20, so that puts a projected target of 4400 for wave 3 to equal wave 1.

That’s the bigger picture, and until we see at least 4400 I see no point looking for large wave 4 down to start, but I do expect it to be bigger then large wave 2, which was about 23.2% of large wave 1 up. Clearly we are getting close to the end of large wave 3, but I think it will take until the middle of June, like around the monthly options expiration to reach the 4400+ level.

When I look at large wave 3 up I have to try to subdivide all the waves to get a better picture of what smaller waves we still have left. It’s obvious that medium wave 1 up inside large 3 up started at the 9/24/20 low and ended at the 10/13/20 high, then medium 2 down ended at the 10/30/20 low. From there medium 3 up started and I think it ended at the current all time high of 4238, where we had a medium wave 4 pullback.

From there medium wave 5 up started, which will of course subdivide into 5 small waves. I think we completed small wave 1 up from the 4029 low on 5/13/21 into the 4173 high on 5/18/21. That clearly has 5 tiny waves inside it, so it’s easy to figure out. Then the small wave 2 down bottomed into the 4055 low on 5/19/21, where small wave 3 up started (all inside medium wave 5 up, inside large wave 3 up).

It gets harder to count the tiny waves but I think from the 4055 starting point of small 3 up inside medium 5 up we did 3 out of 5 tiny waves with the current all time high ending the tiny wave 3 up. The drop from there into the low yesterday was likely the tiny wave 4 down, which leave tiny 5 up yet to come.

This wave should make a slightly higher high, like maybe in the 4240-4250 I suspect. Just enough to keep everyone long expecting the 4320′s area up next where they all want to short at due to the obvious long term rising trendline that is major resistance. But the market never makes it that easy, which is why I think we’ll see this tiny 5th wave stop just a little above the current all time high. Then we drop for small wave 4 down, which should stay above the bottom of small wave 2 (4055)… and I suspect we’ll see this happen early next week.

From there small wave 5 up can take us up to the 4320 area to complete medium wave 5 and complete large wave 3 up too. If it only reaches 4320 it will fall shy of equally large wave 1 by 80 points, but that’s not a rule that they must equal. It’s just a common pattern.

And if that rally up toward 4320 last into mid June as I suspect that long term rising trendline of resistance will likely move up to 4340-4350… which would be closer to large wave 3 equaling large wave 1 in points. So late June is setting up for a nice correction. It should be equal to large wave 2 down from 9/2/20-9/24/20 at least… if not more.

Again, that was an ABC drop of about 23.2%… which is close to your 23.6% Fibonacci Level. I’d think we could see 38.2% for large wave 4, and not in an ABC but more likely a one wave pattern. I say that because wave 2′s and wave 4′s tend to alternate in both pattern and depth. That’s all for now. Have a great weekend.