ES Morning Update November 3rd 2021

Today is “the day” for top to appear and the market to start the 5-7% pullback. The FOMC meetings have be total “dud’s” for several years now, meaning that they we’re “market moving days”… but that wasn’t the case for the first few years after the 2009 bottom and start of the stimulus money.

Back then every meeting was met with wild swings up and down around the time they released the minutes and then some strong move up into the close. Many of the prior meetings back then were turning points in the market, so possibly we see that again today? Everyone is expecting to hear the Fed talk about starting to Taper soon, which at first thought might sound bearish but it’s really bullish. Why? Because if the Fed thinks that it’s time to start Tapering soon (withdrawing stimulus money from the market) then they must think the market is strong enough to withstand this process and still hold the current gains.

That’s how the pro’s look as Tapering, which is probably why we rallied so strongly up into the meeting for the last month… at least that’s what it appears to be. In reality we were oversold on many time frames so a strong rally was coming either way, so it was “in the charts” basically. But I can’t deny that the news of Tapering being viewed as positive helped to extend the rally up into the meeting and higher then I thought it would go.

Yes, there are trendlines of support and resistance all along the way up to the current high, but I thought it would have stopped at some lower one. Regardless, it is what it is… right? So here we are into the FOMC and today at 2:30 pm (or is it 2pm… I forgot) we will hear the official statement concerning Tapering.

Since the market thinks the Fed will do it soon that official statement is already “baked-in” already. But from a technical point of view this market needs another 5-7% pullback, so what could cause that I wonder? What the Fed states that they are NOT going to start Tapering anytime soon? The pro’s would then start to think that the Fed “think” the market isn’t as strong as they thought it was and still needs the stimulus money… which of course would be a reason for them to sell and take profits.

Then after the 5-7% pullback ends the market calms down and the pro’s come back in and buy it back up again as it final hits them that the Fed is still there and won’t allow a huge drop or crash (not yet at least) and will use the stimulus money to push the market higher again. So they get long again and ride the Fed’s back up to 5000+ into the end of this year and the first part of next year.

This is all just speculation on what I think might happen and could be blamed for the coming pullback, nothing more. I don’t know what the Fed will say but if you want a news related item to point out for the coming pullback then this is the best scenario I have. The technical’s say it’s coming no matter what is said but we all know that news event are commonly used to accelerate a move, which is why I purposed this story about the meeting today. Have a blessed day.