Technical Tuesday – To Bounce or Not to Bounce?

These are the bounce lines on the S&P 500 (/ES):

I made this chart at yesterday’s low at 3:21 pm, in our Live Member Chat Room and I said to our Members:

On the whole, it’s very well-behaved.  Notice at the bottom, the MACD seems oversold.  That combined with we are testing 4,000 (which should be very bouncy) and the VIX around 35 means we are very primed for a bounce back up now.  

The Fed is kind of a wild card but there are no major earnings likely to rock the markets.  PFE is a relatively low-weighted Dow component since it goes by price and PFE is only $47.80.  COP is the next biggie on Thursday but how can they have bad earnings?  They are not even in the Dow – CVX is.  No mega-tech to pull the S&P down either.  

On the Calendar, nothing important tomorrow other than Fed rumors but it should be a bit bouncy and then PMI and ISM services and the Fed Wednesday but, if they don’t disappoint, then good time to retest the strong bounce. 

I sent an alert out to all of our Members and we adjusted our Short-Term Portfolio (STP) just a bit more bullish by cashing in some of the gains we made on our hedges.  We were looking for at least a Weak Bounce to 4,160 and, as I said above, hopefully a Strong Bounce back to 4,320.  At the moment (8 am), we’re at 4,141 and we need some decent news to provide a catalyst if we’re going to make it over the Weak Bounce line and have any chance to get to the Strong Bounce.  Failing the Weak Bounce would be – BAD!  

…

Provided courtesy of Phil’s Stock World.