ES Morning Update January 31st 2023

The pullback for Extra Tiny Wave 4 happened all day on Monday, and it’s still is in play now. This could drag out until after the FOMC meeting this Wednesday, so patience is the key here.

From what I’m noticed over the past 3-5 years the FOMC meeting rarely produce a big turn, so this one probably isn’t going to be one either. Sure, we could see some wild swings up and down but overall I don’t think it will be a top and rollover day. Possibly it’s the bottom for this Extra Tiny Wave 4, as it could subdivide into an ABC I guess, where the A down was yesterday, a B up today and a C down tomorrow?

Again, as I’ve said many many times these really small waves are hard to figure out. For example, we could still be in Extra Tiny Wave 3 up and it is subdividing into 5 waves, where as last Fridays high was just the 3 wave inside it, then the wave 4 was yesterday and maybe we get a wave 5 today that just double tops Friday, or falls shy a few points (truncated 5th wave).

If that’s the count then the Extra Tiny Wave 3 up would end today, or tomorrow before the FOMC, with that double top and Extra Tiny Wave 4 down would happen after the Fed speaks. It would be the “shakeout” wave that gets everyone bearish, but if I’m right there will be another wave back up on Thursday and/or Friday, which will be Extra Tiny Wave 5… and it will take out the stops on the bears above 4100.

How much I don’t know but I’ll be looking for the FP on IWM as my clue. Once it hits, and we are above 4100 by a decent amount, it’s go time for bears. Until then I’m just sitting on my hands waiting like a lion does before it attacks its prey. Have a blessed day.