ES Morning Update February 16th 2023

This is taking much longer then I expected, so I’m going to explore an alternate path today. I still think we are going to get a nasty drop but I suspect it will stop around the 3950 area where all the support is at from various trendlines and the 200 day moving average. It should be a very fast drop, like 1-2 days, as that will be enough to get the bears awake again.

Then we go back up using them as fuel to squeeze to 4300 or higher into mid-March, and from there we finally top out and start the next big pullback. This is an alternative path if the 3950 zone holds, but if it doesn’t then we are in for the new lows move. I just don’t give it high odds now as there’s been too much time up here in this choppy sideways pattern. Tops don’t usually last 2 weeks as you can see for yourself by looking in the past for other highs.

It’s still possible but unlikely right now. What I’d want to see would be slow but steady selling that keeps the bulls buying the move down. If it’s too fast the bears will short it and start calling for a crash. It has too be sneaky to keep them from short it until it’s broken too many support levels and then they chase it down. Again, the odds are lower now for this happening as it’s taken too long in the sideways pattern. I suspect now that we’ll get a fast 1-2 day drop to wake up the bears on purpose so they will short it and therefore be fuel that is needed for the squeeze back up. Have a blessed day.