ES Morning Update February 3rd 2023

We went up a little higher then I thought we would yesterday as I really didn’t think the market would hit 4200, but it did… go figure! I have been talking about that mid-points zone as a target high for this last move up for a month now probably, but I didn’t listen to myself and shorted on Wednesday instead.  It hasn’t changed anything though as I’m still quite bearish here and will continue to be until something changes on the techinical side, and right now there’s nothing bullish here.

Afterhours yesterday Google, Apple and Amazon came out with earnings that were not good and they all sold off afterwards. I’m sure many traders were front running those earnings, which is of course the ol’ “Buy the rumor, Sell the news” move.  So I don’t see those stocks helping to keep the market in rally mode.

Today will be the day for Willy Coyote to finally look down at his feet as everything screams look out below to me. Could they hold it up again today since it’s the end of the week… sure, they can do anything they want I guess. But if nature takes hold we’ll be rolling over today. It might not be much, or it could but huge… can’t say.

And normally the first down day after a big squeeze is just a mild one and not a huge one like 8/26/22 was. I’d lean more toward 8/17/22, but secretly wishing of 8/26.  Next week will tell us the real story as to whether or not we are starting “the big one” or if it’s just another pullback for a higher low.  If we aren’t down hard by the end of next week then the crash is likely dead.  Everything I see says it should happen but that doesn’t mean it will.

Not much else to add here. All the remaining waves up look complete now and RSI very overbought. Time to head south in my opinion. Have a great weekend.