ES Morning Update March 10th 2023

Yesterday went a little lower then I thought it would, as I thought 3950 would hold. It’s still fine though on the wave count as we’ve had a nice ABC down for Super Extra Tiny Wave 5 (set 5), which ends Extra Tiny Wave 3 (ET3). The RSI is oversold now on the 6hr chart so a rally is near.

Whether that starts today or not is unknown but I think it should at least put in the bottom. The next move up will be Extra Tiny Wave 4 (ET4), which I don’t know how high it gets but my best guess is the 4000-4020 area. Today we hit 4019 as a high before the waterfall move into the close, so a test of that level seems likely into early next week.

If we see this move up today and into Monday then bears will short it hard I’m sure, which should give us another nasty drop on Tuesday for Super Extra Tiny Wave 1 (set 1), inside Extra Tiny Wave 5 (ET5). That move should be reversed hard back up the next day or even intraday on Tuesday to shake those bears out. It will be Super Extra Tiny Wave 2 (set 2), and will likely hold up around that 4000 zone on Wednesday and Thursday of next week… possibly into Friday too as it’s OPEX.

The point I’m making here is that they will likely calm the market down from about mid-week into the end of it for the common OPEX Volatility Crush. Everything is going as I charted it so far, even if it went a little deeper then expected yesterday. Have a great weekend.