ES Morning Update March 16th 2023

Yesterday’s pullback was pretty much what I was expecting. It was weak all day except into the close where it rallied back up some to reduced to losses. This morning we see the futures down small and holding right under a falling trendline of resistance. If it pushes through today we should squeeze into Friday with 3950-4000 possible.

Basically we should run back up to the prior resistance zone from March 8th, and that’s around 4000 or so. I don’t know if it’s going to happen today or tomorrow but after it’s done I think we’ll pullback again next Monday and Tuesday in front of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday.

After the the meeting I’m sure we’ll do some more wild swings up and down and go nowhere in the end. But there’s still a chance that we drop into the 3700′s before we start the rally back up for Tiny Wave 2 (T2) that I covered in my weekend update this Monday. It may not go that low… I don’t know? It’s more about “time” and “pattern” then price right now, and the “time” part suggests some chop with a downward bias for about 3-6 days after the FOMC, and then we start the rally into April.

The question I can’t answer is whether or not we take out the December low of 3788 from last year. We might not even take out the 3839 recent low on March 13th? Or maybe we stop somewhere in-between the two… hard too say. But again, that should not be worried about for now as I don’t expect the market to get down there until that 3-6 day period after the meeting next Wednesday. For the short term I expect a move up to 3950-4000 to happen between today and tomorrow. Have a blessed day.