ES Morning Update March 24th 2023

We got the move up to around 4030 ES (4000 SPX) that I was looking for, but it did it way faster then I expected. It was over with in couple of hours and then we rolled over into the close. I do believe that Extra Tiny Wave A topped on Wednesday and that we are now in Extra Tiny Wave B down, which should last into mid next week with a target of 3900 or lower (ES).

Of course the coming drop will be full of more wild swings both ways, but the trend should be down overall. It’s really hard to try and figure out all the crazy waves up and down along the way, but I’ll try.

The rally up yesterday to around 4030 ES (about 4000 SPX) was probably Super Extra Tiny Wave B (set B), which means that the drop on Wednesday from the 4073.75 ES high to the low into the close of 3966.25 was Super Extra Tiny Wave A (set A). We know that A waves and C waves commonly breakdown into 5 wave patterns, and B waves are usually 3 waves. However, both the A and B waves can complete in just one wave, which is more common on intraday moves… and that’s what we had yesterday and Wednesday.

Here’s the short term wave count…

Therefore I’m going to go with Super Extra Tiny Wave A down finishing in just one wave on Wednesday from the high, and I’ll also suggest that Super Extra Tiny Wave B up ended yesterday with the morning “squeeze” rally on the bears. That means we should be in Super Extra Tiny Wave C down now.

Odds are much stronger that it breaks down into 5 waves, and that the drop yesterday was a wave 1 inside it, which is continuing into this morning session. The expected rally up later today, which should be more calm, is likely going to be the wave 2 up, which should not be that strong.  I doubt if it gets past 4000 as that now resistance.

That further suggests that we’ll see a wave 3, 4 and 5 play out into Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. It could last into Thursday but as fast as these moves have been lately I don’t think it will extend that far in time.

Again, I don’t know how far it goes but 3900 ES seems logical. It could drop lower to the that falling red trendline on my chart, which is around 3870 or so… who knows? But when it finishes the bears are going to be loading up super short for “the big one”, but it should NOT happen. In my opinion it will only be the end of Extra Tiny Wave B (ETB) and Extra Tiny Wave C up (ETC) should take us over 4100 into the second week of April Nothing has changed for me all week as the market is tracking my forecast quite well.

Now the intraday moves up and down are going faster then I expected, and to the extreme top and bottom ranges, but again… it’s too hard too predict that. I’d go a little further and stay it’s impossible. Have a great weekend.