ES Morning Update March 27th 2023

Lots of wild swings last week but this week should be a little more tame I think. I suspect we will remain in a range from 3900-4000 SPX (3930-4030 ES) but the violent swings intraday should be a lot slower… kinda like dropping a tennis ball from a second story window onto the blacktop, as the last 5 bounces are always less in height then the first 5 were.

That’s what I’m expecting this week basically. Then the first week of April we should see a breakout of this range to the upside, which should carry into the middle of the month I believe. I’m unsure of how high we go but the 4200 area seems very possible, or maybe higher if they decide to drag out Small Wave 2 up in time?

As you know I have labeled Medium Wave B up as topping on August 16th, 2022 at 4325 on the SPX, and from there we’ve been in Medium Wave C down ever since. It’s a C Wave, and they are almost always divided into smaller waves, of which I think Small Wave 1 down ended at the 3491 SPX low on October 13th, 2022.

Here’s that current count for a reminder.

Since then we’ve been in Small Wave 2 up, which normally subdivides in 3 waves. Currently I have marked the top, and therefore “end” of Small Wave 2 at the February 2nd, 2023 high of 4195 on the SPX.

That is only valid as long as that level isn’t taken out in the near future with the rally up I’m expecting in April. I could be wrong by marking the end of Small Wave 2 at that point in time, so I’m going to cover the alternative count in this post.

Ok, so here we go. It is that we could still be inside Tiny Wave C up, inside Small Wave 2 up. Meaning that Tiny Wave C is subdividing into five waves up and the February 2nd, 2023 high of 4195 is NOT the end of Tiny Wave C up, therefore ending Small Wave 2 up… but instead it’s just the first wave 1 up inside Tiny Wave C up.

Here’s that new and possible wave count.

As you can see this opens the door for a lot more chop for possibly several more months until all five wave complete, which ends Tiny Wave C and Small Wave 2 up. It means we could see a May/June top for it and then a June/July start for Tiny Wave 3 down inside Small Wave C.

That would be the crash wave obviously, and I’d look for a bottom in July at that point. This alternative wave count just came to my head this weekend, which I’m sure is God’s way of  just keeping me open to whatever path the market takes, as he knows me too well and knows that many times in the past 10+ years I’d get too excited looking for some crash and give up right before it finally happens.

He’s right about that as many times in the past I’d get the early wave count correct but miss the final waves before the last top (meaning I wouldn’t see the subdividing extra waves). I’m sure I’m not alone as SkyNet has a history of fooling the masses… suggesting that if the wave count it too obvious, it’s obviously wrong.

This alternative wave count isn’t one that most will see in my humble opinion. If I’m right on it, then when it’s finished there should be 7 waves up from the low in October of 2022. The first wave will be Tiny Wave A, and the second will be Tiny Wave B down. Then 5 more waves to make Tiny Wave C up.

It’s the subdividing waves that fool everyone “before it happens”, as they are harder to predict. Of course “after they happen” it’s easy to spot them, but we aren’t there yet. My reasons for thinking this new alternative “extending in time” wave count is more likely then the current primary wave count is because the next several months are historically bullish from a Seasonality point of view.

Plus I just don’t think Tiny Wave C up inside Small Wave 2 is long enough in both “time” and “points”. Call it a gut feeling or divine instinct… or just years of studying the market I guess? I’ve been very blessed in my life as God has always watched over me, even when I’ve done the stupidest thing.

And maybe all that in the past was just a learning lesson for the time we are in right now? I’ve always felt Jesus awas around and protecting me, but I’ve never been closer to him then now. I think that’s because we are living the end times, the 7 years of tribulation in the book of Revolations. I feel that Jesus is helping navigate the market now because he wants me to get prepared for what’s coming.

Anyway, I’ll write more about this in the future as the words pour from the lips of Jesus to my fingers typing on the keyboard right now. I’ll let him tell me when and what to say in future posts.

Ok, for today, I think we pullback small (20-40 points), then bounce back up some Tuesday, back down some Wednesday, which should mark low for the week. It might be near 3900 SPX (3930 ES)… not sure?  But wherever it’s at we should then go back up some on Thursday and Friday to end the week going basically nowhere.  I don’t see any breakout over 4000 SPX yet. That should happen next week I think to start the month of April off with a bang. Have a blessed day.